Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:42:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
1C 0x1c11…5382 crypto 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate56%9W / 7L
Drawdown87%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day25.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$143
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+0.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +10.6% +0.1% 56% 50% +11.1%
≤30d 16 +10.6% +0.1% 56% 50% +11.1%
≤90d 16 +10.6% +0.1% 56% 50% +11.1%
all 16 +10.6% +0.1% 56% 50% +11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.1% 50% +11.1%
10% ← realistic here -9.5% 44% +0.4%
15% -18.3% 44% -9.3%
20% -26.3% 31% -18.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 60% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$25 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.83 per $1 lost it wins $1.83
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses9 / 7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage1d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day25.0
Drawdown87%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 23 $27 +$101 +381%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 23 $83 +$8 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 23 $83 +$15 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$26 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 23 $27 −$25 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 23 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 23 $102 +$87 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 23 $11 +$14 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 23 $50 +$39 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 22 $25 −$24 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$9 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 22 $49 +$17 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 22 $50 −$24 -48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 53¢ $128 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $91 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $83 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $83 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $27 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $102 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $25 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Up 81¢ $34 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $25 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $24 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $24 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $38 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $25 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $25 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 31 history records