Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T16:32:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
1C 0x1c0f…7fe9 crypto 313 markets active 2h ago coverage 83d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$173 (-3%) realized −$172 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate42%130W / 181L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$212now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$98
7 days+$107
14 days+$107
30 days+$107
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% −$394
sports 12% +$109
other 7% +$3
weather 0% −$10
world 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +8.9% -1.5% 55% 55% +5.0%
≤30d 20 +8.9% -1.5% 55% 55% +5.0%
≤90d 311 -9.5% -18.1% 42% 34% -14.0%
all 311 -9.5% -18.1% 42% 34% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.1% 34% -14.0%
10% -26.0% 30% -22.3%
15% -33.1% 23% -29.8%
20% -39.7% 18% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$8 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$212
Realized−$172
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses130 / 181
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions2
Markets (closed)311 / 313
History coverage83d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 311 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Yes 59¢ 60¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $122 +$93 +76%
Spread: France (-4.5) Jun 22 $14 −$14 -98%
Spread: France (-3.5) Jun 22 $41 −$40 -98%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 21 $5 +$11 +206%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $25 +$21 +83%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 21 $87 +$28 +32%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 −$9 -97%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 +$25 +249%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 +$16 +52%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $10 +$6 +60%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $30 +$20 +67%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $28 +$30 +105%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $35 −$35 -99%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $30 +$33 +109%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $80 +$30 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Apr 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Apr 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Apr 06 $11 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Apr 06 $20 −$10 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Apr 06 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Apr 06 $4 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Apr 06 $7 +$3 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Apr 06 $0 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Apr 06 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Apr 06 $9 +$3 +31%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters, Qualification: Ethan Quinn vs Francisco Com Apr 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 19°C on April 4? Apr 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Copa Colsanitas: Panna Udvardy vs Katarzyna Kawa Apr 06 $21 +$5 +25%
Timberwolves vs. 76ers Apr 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Apr 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Wonju DB Promy vs. Seoul Thunders Apr 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Apr 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters, Qualification: Pedro Martinez vs Aleksandar Apr 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bulls vs. Knicks Apr 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Apr 06 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Apr 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Apr 06 $3 −$3 -100%
US Men's Clay Court Championships: Tomas Etcheverry vs Tommy Paul Apr 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 4? Apr 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bruins vs. Lightning Apr 06 $1 −$1 -100%
AHL: Grand Rapids Griffins vs. Manitoba Moose Apr 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Apr 06 $5 $0 -7%
Islanders vs. Hurricanes Apr 06 $1 −$1 -100%
San Luis Potosi: Matias Soto vs Nicolas Mejia Apr 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 4? Apr 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 59¢ $13 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $201 1h
Spread: France (-4.5) BUY France 19¢ $14 24h
Spread: France (-3.5) BUY France 35¢ $41 24h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 56¢ $122 24h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes $10 2d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 75¢ $36 2d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 75¢ $50 2d
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 32¢ $5 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $25 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $60 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $5 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No $5 2d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL No 100¢ $36 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $46 2d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY No 28¢ $10 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $30 3d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 42¢ $31 3d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $10 3d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $30 3d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $8 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $28 4d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $35 4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $80 5d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 47¢ $30 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $8 78d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $4 78d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $5 78d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 78d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 78d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $212.28 · official $212.28 (match) · 1091 history records