Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:59:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1C 0x1c0f…99d0 weather 336 markets active 0h ago coverage 47d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 47d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (66 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$46,324 (+106%) realized +$48,396 · open −$2,072
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate20%65W / 265L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$130per market
Trades / day66.1pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$5,591now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 47d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 47% +$6,905
politics 28% +$3,000
other 26% −$2,055
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (66 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 105 -3.9% -13.0% 14% 9% +31.4%
≤30d 191 -5.7% -14.7% 17% 11% +18.7%
≤90d 330 +0.1% -9.5% 20% 15% +17.0%
all 330 +0.1% -9.5% 20% 15% +17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover66.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.5% 15% +17.0%
10% ← realistic here -18.1% 12% +5.8%
15% -26.0% 10% -4.4%
20% -33.3% 10% -13.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +31% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$231 vs −$19 · ×12.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.95 per $1 lost it wins $2.95
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$5,591
Realized+$48,396
Unrealized−$2,072
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses65 / 265
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Open positions6
Markets (closed)330 / 336
History coverage47d ⚠
Avg bet$130
Trades / day66.1
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 330 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 50¢ 87¢ $2,788 $4,837 +$2,049 (+74%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 50¢ 13¢ $2,788 $739 −$2,049 (-74%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on June 17? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $16 $10 −$6 (-39%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 17? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+20%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on June 17? Yes 24¢ 26¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 17? Yes 20¢ 1¢ $12 $0 −$11 (-97%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 17? No 21¢ 1¢ $7 $0 −$6 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 17? Jun 17 $13 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 17? Jun 17 $20 −$2 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 17? Jun 17 $4 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 17? Jun 17 $77 −$3 -3%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 17 $27 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 17 $19 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 17? Jun 17 $45 −$2 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 17? Jun 17 $64 −$3 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 17? Jun 17 $12 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 17? Jun 17 $16 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 17 $102 −$5 -5%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 17 $272 −$10 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 17 $136 −$6 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 17? Jun 17 $19 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 17? Jun 17 $11 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 17? Jun 17 $74 −$3 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $0 $0 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $19 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 16? Jun 16 $6 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $28 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $38 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $65 −$4 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $41 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $16 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 +$1 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 13? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 13? Jun 14 $25 −$22 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 13? Jun 14 $15 −$11 -71%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 13? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 13? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 12? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 12? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 13 $55 −$33 -60%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 12? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 12? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 12? Jun 13 $57 −$54 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C or higher on June 12? Jun 13 $35 −$35 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 12? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 13 $53 −$4 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $9 +$12 +138%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $13 +$55 +430%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 13? Jun 13 $3 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $72 −$6 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 13? Jun 13 $6 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 13 $57 −$13 -23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 17? SELL Yes 22¢ $3 28m
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 17? SELL Yes 29¢ $7 38m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 17? SELL Yes 29¢ $4 38m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 17? SELL Yes 55¢ $43 38m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju SELL Yes 36¢ $7 38m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju SELL Yes 29¢ $10 39m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju SELL Yes 36¢ $2 39m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 17? SELL Yes 31¢ $44 41m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 17? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 41m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 17? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 47m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju SELL Yes 30¢ $1 53m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju SELL Yes 30¢ $3 56m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju SELL Yes 30¢ $3 56m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju SELL Yes 30¢ $2 56m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 17? BUY Yes 31¢ $31 58m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 17? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 58m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 17? BUY Yes 56¢ $28 58m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 17? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 58m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 17? BUY Yes 22¢ $0 59m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju BUY Yes 24¢ $0 59m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 17? SELL Yes 37¢ $40 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 17? BUY Yes 38¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 17? BUY Yes 56¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 17? SELL Yes 23¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 17? BUY Yes 38¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 17? BUY Yes 23¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 17? BUY Yes 56¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 17? BUY Yes 31¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 17? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY Yes 29¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,591.40 · official $5,591.51 (match) · 3500 history records