Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:13:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
1C 0x1c0d…0b4a crypto 27 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$16 (+11%) realized +$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate63%17W / 10L
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day17.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$7
sports 4% +$7
other 3% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)+3.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +13.9% +3.0% 63% 59% -2.7%
≤30d 27 +13.9% +3.0% 63% 59% -2.7%
≤90d 27 +13.9% +3.0% 63% 59% -2.7%
all 27 +13.9% +3.0% 63% 59% -2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.0% 59% -2.7%
10% -6.8% 48% -12.0%
15% -15.8% 26% -20.5%
20% -24.1% 19% -28.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +34% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses17 / 10
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)27 / 27
History coverage2d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day17.2
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 27 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$9 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $2 +$12 +596%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 +$7 +140%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 17h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 18h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 39h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 50 history records