Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:39:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
1C 0x1c0a…7fb2 crypto 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 42d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$263 (+26%) realized +$266 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +178% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +151% what you keep after slip
Net edge+151%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%4W / 4L
Drawdown77%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$332now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$259
7 days+$259
14 days+$259
30 days+$259
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% +$66
crypto 30% −$1
sports 26% +$192
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+151.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +342.0% +299.9% 50% 50% +36.7%
≤30d 4 +342.0% +299.9% 50% 50% +36.7%
≤90d 8 +177.8% +151.4% 50% 50% +36.3%
all 8 +177.8% +151.4% 50% 50% +36.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +151.4% 50% +36.3%
10% +127.3% 50% +23.2%
15% +105.4% 50% +11.3%
20% +85.2% 50% +0.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +51% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +178% · $-wt +51% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$115 vs −$50 · ×2.29 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.29 per $1 lost it wins $2.29
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$332
Realized+$266
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses4 / 4
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions5
Markets (closed)8 / 13
History coverage42d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown77%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $145 $143 −$2 (-1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Over 39¢ 40¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-2%)
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $21 +$265 +1288%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 +$192 +188%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $185 −$181 -97%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $203 −$18 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET May 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET May 07 $1 +$1 +136%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET May 07 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 6, 5AM ET May 06 $2 +$2 +119%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $31 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $102 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 15¢ $31 3h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 3h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $149 4h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 100¢ $285 5h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 7¢ $21 7h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $102 7h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $137 7h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 11¢ $185 25h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $186 25h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $151 25h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $203 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $0 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $2 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $2 41d
XRP Up or Down - May 6, 5AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $5 42d
XRP Up or Down - May 6, 5AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 42d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $332.34 · official $333.62 (match) · 30 history records