Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T19:53:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1C 0x1c03…7bcc crypto 183 markets active 0h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$548 (+1%) realized +$548 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate63%115W / 68L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$216per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$459
7 days−$449
14 days−$413
30 days−$1,011
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$178
finance 1% +$92
world 1% +$66
other 1% −$177
sports 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -21.1% -28.6% 47% 47% -29.9%
≤30d 53 -17.6% -25.4% 51% 47% -24.2%
≤90d 183 -0.0% -9.6% 63% 57% -9.2%
all 183 -0.0% -9.6% 63% 57% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 57% -9.2%
10% -18.2% 53% -17.9%
15% -26.1% 45% -25.8%
20% -33.4% 31% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +21% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$102 vs −$170 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$548
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses115 / 68
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)183 / 183
History coverage68d
Avg bet$216
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 183 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 22 $103 +$54 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 22 $102 +$35 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 22 $200 +$113 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 22 $103 +$64 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 22 $102 +$41 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 22 $179 +$82 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 22 $106 +$74 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 22 $61 +$44 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$36 +140%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $103 −$77 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 22 $7 −$7 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $61 −$61 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $63 −$63 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $203 −$203 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 17 $203 −$203 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 17 $166 −$166 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 13 $111 +$92 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 13 $305 −$139 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 13 $103 +$79 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $225 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 13 $223 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 03 $112 −$50 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 03 $436 −$436 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 03 $103 +$54 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 02 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 02 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 02 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 02 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 02 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 02 $72 −$72 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 02 $102 −$102 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 02 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 02 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 02 $148 −$148 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 02 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 02 $206 +$161 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 02 $203 +$63 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 02 $103 +$82 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 02 $103 +$70 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 02 $102 +$39 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 02 $188 +$38 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 02 $101 +$22 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 02 $102 +$38 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 02 $103 +$67 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 02 $112 +$156 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 02 $139 −$139 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $103 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $102 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $200 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $103 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $179 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $106 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $61 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $25 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 3¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $7 3h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $7 5d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $203 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $111 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $166 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $203 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $103 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $103 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $225 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $223 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $61 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $61 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $51 19d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $63 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $102 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $103 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $2 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 423 history records