Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:56:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

1B 0x1bfe…7782 world 31 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$303 (-19%) realized −$302 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -55% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -62% what you keep after slip

Net edge-62%after slip

Net WR25%break-even

Win rate31%5W / 11L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$51per market

Trades / day17.5pace

Kalshi-fit81%portable

Net worth$518now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +25%

net ROI/market (all)-59.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	16	-54.9%	-59.2%	31%	25%	-39.0%
≤30d	16	-54.9%	-59.2%	31%	25%	-39.0%
≤90d	16	-54.9%	-59.2%	31%	25%	-39.0%
all	16	-54.9%	-59.2%	31%	25%	-39.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover17.5 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-59.2%	25%	-39.0%
10%	-63.1%	12%	-44.8%
15%	-66.6%	12%	-50.1%
20%	-69.9%	0%	-55.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 56% · top 2 86% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

20% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -55% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -57% → late -53% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$10 vs −$36 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.12 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$518

Realized−$302

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)31%

Wins / losses5 / 11

Open positions15

Markets (closed)16 / 31

History coverage3d

Avg bet$51

Trades / day17.5

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 15 History 16 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?	No	70¢	83¢	$126	$149	+$23 (+18%)
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?	No	79¢	68¢	$100	$86	−$14 (-14%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	71¢	78¢	$60	$65	+$5 (+9%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	No	81¢	64¢	$56	$45	−$11 (-20%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17?	No	71¢	70¢	$40	$40	−$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	5¢	4¢	$50	$39	−$11 (-23%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?	No	74¢	66¢	$20	$18	−$2 (-11%)
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?	No	49¢	72¢	$10	$15	+$5 (+47%)
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?	No	77¢	86¢	$12	$13	+$1 (+11%)
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?	No	76¢	87¢	$10	$11	+$1 (+14%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?	No	60¢	64¢	$10	$11	+$1 (+6%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	41¢	40¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-4%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	8¢	12¢	$5	$7	+$2 (+37%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	2¢	$5	$5	+$0 (+7%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	3¢	3¢	$5	$5	+$0 (+2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Jun 17	$10	−$10	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Jun 17	$5	−$5	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Jun 17	$5	−$5	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Jun 17	$5	+$1	+15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	Jun 17	$11	−$10	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Jun 17	$5	+$1	+15%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee	Jun 17	$10	−$10	-95%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?	Jun 17	$60	+$28	+46%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?	Jun 17	$30	+$15	+49%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	Jun 16	$150	+$5	+4%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m	Jun 15	$24	−$23	-95%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$10	−$10	-99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Jun 14	$30	−$26	-87%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	Jun 14	$613	−$204	-33%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Jun 14	$50	−$43	-86%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June?	Jun 14	$51	−$50	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	BUY Down	56¢	$5	24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	BUY Down	52¢	$5	24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	BUY Down	38¢	$5	30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	BUY Down	9¢	$5	32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$6	47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	BUY Up	85¢	$5	49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$5	52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	BUY Up	4¢	$5	53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	SELL Up	13¢	$6	58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	BUY Up	10¢	$5	58m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	41¢	$10	1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17?	BUY No	71¢	$40	1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?	BUY No	67¢	$7	1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee	BUY Yes	0¢	$5	5h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?	BUY No	67¢	$7	5h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?	SELL No	67¢	$88	15h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?	SELL No	43¢	$45	15h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?	BUY No	47¢	$10	29h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	3¢	$5	29h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?	BUY No	29¢	$30	29h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?	BUY No	46¢	$50	29h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	SELL No	97¢	$155	38h
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m	BUY No	1¢	$3	47h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?	BUY No	61¢	$5	2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	56¢	$10	2d
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 202	BUY No	77¢	$12	2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by	BUY No	76¢	$10	2d
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by J	BUY No	49¢	$10	2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	8¢	$5	2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$5	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $517.89 · official $517.89 (match) · 61 history records