Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:09:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1B
0x1bfd…40d0
other · 74 markets active 1d ago
1.0score
+$31,193 +5%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$29,417 · open +$694
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$15,608
Realized+$29,417
Unrealized+$694
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses67 / 2
Whale WR (big bets)94%
Open positions5
Markets (closed)69 / 74
History coverage178d
Avg bet$8,372
Trades / day19.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit35%
Chart Positions 5 History 69 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$62
14 days+$1,811
30 days+$3,849
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Gemini 4.0 released by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 98¢ $12,803 $13,517 +$714 (+6%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? Yes 92¢ 90¢ $1,520 $1,480 −$39 (-3%)
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? Yes 97¢ 96¢ $484 $480 −$4 (-1%)
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? No 76¢ 92¢ $106 $130 +$24 (+22%)
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? Yes 48¢ 50¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026? Jun 09 $528 +$6 +1%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $1,822 +$55 +3%
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $608 +$7 +1%
Will GPT-5.6 be released between May 25 and May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,119 +$4 +0%
GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $8,444 +$27 +0%
GTA VI released before June 2026? Jun 01 $108,274 +$1,632 +2%
Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $663 +$2 +0%
GTA 6 launch postponed again? May 31 $381 +$77 +20%
Gemini 3.2 released by May 31, 2026? May 19 $6,871 +$267 +4%
Gemini 3.2 released by June 30, 2026? May 19 $8,689 +$217 +2%
Gemini 3.2 released by May 22, 2026? May 17 $3,949 +$1,554 +39%
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026? May 01 $802 +$5 +1%
Will MrBeast hit 485 million subscribers by April 30? May 01 $2,398 +$2 +0%
Will MrBeast hit 480 million subscribers by April 30? Apr 28 $7,848 −$132 -2%
GPT-5.5 released by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $2,464 +$107 +4%
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026? Apr 23 $319 +$82 +26%
Will GPT-5.5 not be released by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $792 +$39 +5%
Will MrBeast hit 479 million subscribers by April 30? Apr 22 $1,409 +$38 +3%
Will MrBeast hit 478 million subscribers by April 30? Apr 18 $97 +$3 +3%
Will MrBeast hit 477 million subscribers by April 30? Apr 13 $1,498 +$9 +1%
Will MrBeast hit 475 million subscribers by April 30? Apr 06 $99 +$1 +1%
Meta "Mango" model released by March 31? Apr 01 $2,099 +$5 +0%
Gemini 3.5 released by March 31? Apr 01 $3,449 +$7 +0%
Grok 5 released by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $584 +$15 +2%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $1,594 +$3 +0%
Will Apple release a new version of the Apple TV by March 31? Apr 01 $759 +$1 +0%
Will MrBeast hit 500 Million subscribers by March 31? Apr 01 $466 +$5 +1%
Will MrBeast hit 477 Million subscribers by March 31? Apr 01 $584 +$3 +1%
Will MrBeast hit 490 Million subscribers by March 31? Apr 01 $936 +$3 +0%
Will MrBeast hit 480 Million subscribers by March 31? Apr 01 $2,806 +$52 +2%
Will MrBeast hit 475 Million subscribers by March 31? Apr 01 $3,123 +$57 +2%
Will GPT-6 be released by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $10,016 +$13 +0%
Claude 4.7 released by March 31? Apr 01 $1,780 +$5 +0%
Will MrBeast hit 473 Million subscribers by March 31? Mar 25 $377 +$3 +1%
Will MrBeast hit 472 Million subscribers by March 31? Mar 20 $7,197 +$98 +1%
Will Claude 5 be released by March 15, 2026? Mar 16 $3,039 +$5 +0%
Claude 4.7 released by March 15? Mar 16 $3,453 +$19 +1%
GPT-5.3 released by March 15, 2026? Mar 09 $1,077 +$1 +0%
Will MrBeast hit 470 Million subscribers by March 31? Mar 07 $27,064 +$280 +1%
GPT-5.3 released by February 28, 2026? Mar 01 $3,065 +$62 +2%
Will Claude 5 be released by February 28, 2026? Mar 01 $4,908 −$95 -2%
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? Mar 01 $174,021 +$1,707 +1%
Will Claude 5 be released by February 14, 2026? Feb 15 $7,590 +$68 +1%
Will the Liberal Democratic Party win the most seats in the 2026 Japan Feb 09 $7,413 +$15 +0%
Will Claude 5 be released by February 6, 2026? Feb 07 $993 +$7 +1%
Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026? Feb 05 $635 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in February? Feb 05 $91 +$2 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in January? Feb 01 $64 +$1 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in January? Feb 01 $508 +$5 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? Feb 01 $998 +$2 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 79% +$12,580
crypto 11% +$310
tech 9% +$17,207
politics 1% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Gemini 4.0 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $44 25h
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $484 41h
Gemini 4.0 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $48 42h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $22 47h
Gemini 4.0 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $58 47h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $13 2d
Gemini 4.0 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $40 2d
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $426 2d
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $460 2d
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $602 2d
Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $101 2d
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $835 2d
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $56 2d
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $931 2d
Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $20 2d
Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $20 2d
Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $20 2d
Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $20 3d
Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $20 3d
Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $20 3d
Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $20 3d
Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $20 3d
Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $20 3d
Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $20 3d
Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $20 3d
Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $20 3d
Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $6 3d
Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $9 3d
Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $176 3d
Gemini 4.0 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $101 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)+23.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +2.1% -7.6% 100% 0% -7.1%
≤30d 11 +6.7% -3.4% 100% 18% -7.1%
≤90d 37 +3.4% -6.4% 97% 8% -7.6%
all 69 +36.8% +23.8% 97% 13% -4.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover19.1 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +23.8% 13% -4.8%
10% ← realistic here +12.0% 10% -13.9%
15% +1.1% 9% -22.2%
20% -8.8% 6% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15,608.27 · official $15,608.16 (match) · 3500 history records