Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T19:28:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
1B 0x1bfc…7384 other 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$154 (+30%) realized +$154 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%7W / 6L
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 97% +$161
sports 2% $0
world 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -9.0% -17.6% 54% 54% +22.1%
≤30d 13 -9.0% -17.6% 54% 54% +22.1%
≤90d 13 -9.0% -17.6% 54% 54% +22.1%
all 13 -9.0% -17.6% 54% 54% +22.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.6% 54% +22.1%
10% -25.5% 38% +10.4%
15% -32.7% 31% -0.3%
20% -39.3% 23% -10.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 81% · top 2 87% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +35% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +35% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$3 · ×7.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×9.06 per $1 lost it wins $9.06
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized+$154
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses7 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage3d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 83¢ 84¢ $56 $57 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $49 +$8 +15%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20 +$11 +55%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -59%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $1 +$1 +78%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $30 +$7 +22%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $15 −$9 -61%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 +$6 +60%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 +$2 +31%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $6 −$4 -58%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$3 -33%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $299 +$143 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $57 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $57 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $49 10h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 19h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 20h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 20h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 21h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 22h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 83¢ $37 25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 37h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 42h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 43h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 41¢ $7 43h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 45h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 43¢ $6 45h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 46h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $10 46h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 47h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 24¢ $2 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 48¢ $7 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $442 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $299 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.68 · official $56.68 (match) · 29 history records