Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:53:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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1B 0x1bfb…737c crypto 468 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$138 (-15%) realized −$136 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate15%68W / 396L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day41.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$65
14 days−$154
30 days−$154
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$153
other 0% −$1
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-33.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 176 -28.8% -35.6% 18% 18% -31.9%
≤30d 464 -26.4% -33.4% 15% 15% -26.2%
≤90d 464 -26.4% -33.4% 15% 15% -26.2%
all 464 -26.4% -33.4% 15% 15% -26.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -33.4% 15% -26.2%
10% ← realistic here -39.8% 15% -33.3%
15% -45.6% 15% -39.7%
20% -50.9% 14% -45.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$2 · ×4.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$136
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses68 / 396
Open positions4
Markets (closed)464 / 468
History coverage14d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day41.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 464 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-21%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-58%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Up 20¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 388 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$2 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$5 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$4 +374%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$2 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$2 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$2 +184%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.19 · official $2.19 (match) · 649 history records