Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:42:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
1B 0x1bfb…6901 crypto 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 124d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$7 (-1%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +22% what you keep after slip
Net edge+22%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate47%9W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$9
14 days−$9
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$21
world 11% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+22.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +51.1% +36.7% 53% 41% -11.0%
≤30d 17 +51.1% +36.7% 53% 41% -11.0%
≤90d 17 +51.1% +36.7% 53% 41% -11.0%
all 19 +35.2% +22.3% 47% 37% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +22.3% 37% -12.5%
10% +10.6% 32% -20.9%
15% -0.1% 32% -28.6%
20% -9.9% 26% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 74% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +35% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late +100% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$31 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses9 / 10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage124d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $76 −$14 -18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $208 −$200 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $68 −$65 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $36 +$53 +149%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$7 +72%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $42 +$28 +67%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $16 +$164 +1030%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $42 +$34 +81%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 17 $29 +$1 +5%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen Jun 17 $30 +$2 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$8 -49%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $9 −$1 -15%
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $10 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Feb 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Feb 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $15 53m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $144 54m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $61 55m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 22¢ $0 58m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $32 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $176 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $19 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $40 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $89 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $36 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $18 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $42 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $21 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $28 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $21 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $180 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $11 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $65 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $11 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $11 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $21 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $31 1h
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen SELL Yes 34¢ $32 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 49 history records