Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T06:41:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

1B 0x1bf6…f530 crypto 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d

TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$36 (+5%) realized +$36 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip

Net edge-7%after slip

Net WR32%break-even

Win rate91%20W / 2L

Drawdown41%max

Avg bet$34per market

Trades / day7.8pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit95%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +32%

net ROI/market (all)-2.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	22	+7.4%	-2.8%	91%	32%	-5.7%
≤30d	22	+7.4%	-2.8%	91%	32%	-5.7%
≤90d	22	+7.4%	-2.8%	91%	32%	-5.7%
all	22	+7.4%	-2.8%	91%	32%	-5.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover7.8 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-2.8%	32%	-5.7%
10%	-12.1%	9%	-14.7%
15%	-20.6%	5%	-22.9%
20%	-28.4%	5%	-30.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 30% · top 2 40% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

55% wins margin < slip thin win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +7% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +19% → late -4% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$3 vs −$11 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×2.44 per $1 lost it wins $2.44

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$36

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)91%

Wins / losses20 / 2

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions0

Markets (closed)22 / 22

History coverage4d

Avg bet$34

Trades / day7.8

Drawdown41%

Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 22 Trades

no open positions

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 25	$270	$0	-0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET	Jun 24	$22	−$22	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	Jun 24	$22	$0	+1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET	Jun 24	$22	+$1	+3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET	Jun 24	$20	+$2	+8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	Jun 24	$26	+$5	+20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET	Jun 24	$24	+$2	+10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Jun 24	$23	$0	+2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET	Jun 24	$23	+$1	+3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET	Jun 24	$22	+$1	+3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET	Jun 24	$21	+$1	+4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET	Jun 24	$20	+$1	+5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET	Jun 21	$20	+$5	+23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET	Jun 21	$20	+$4	+19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET	Jun 21	$20	+$4	+22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET	Jun 21	$20	+$2	+10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET	Jun 21	$20	+$3	+13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET	Jun 21	$22	+$3	+15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET	Jun 21	$20	+$2	+8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET	Jun 21	$20	+$2	+8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET	Jun 21	$60	+$1	+1%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5	Jun 20	$20	+$17	+83%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL No	100¢	$50	1h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	100¢	$50	1h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL No	100¢	$55	1h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	100¢	$55	1h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL No	100¢	$55	1h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	100¢	$55	1h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL No	100¢	$55	1h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	100¢	$55	1h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL No	100¢	$55	1h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	100¢	$55	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET	SELL Down	1¢	$0	14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET	BUY Down	62¢	$22	14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	BUY Down	99¢	$22	14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET	BUY Down	97¢	$22	15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET	BUY Down	92¢	$20	15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	BUY Down	82¢	$26	16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET	BUY Down	90¢	$24	16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	BUY Down	98¢	$23	16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET	BUY Down	97¢	$23	18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET	SELL Down	94¢	$23	19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET	BUY Down	90¢	$22	19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET	BUY Down	96¢	$21	20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET	BUY Down	95¢	$20	20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET	BUY Down	80¢	$20	3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET	BUY Down	83¢	$20	3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET	BUY Up	81¢	$20	4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET	BUY Up	90¢	$20	4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET	BUY Down	88¢	$20	4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET	BUY Up	86¢	$22	4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET	BUY Down	92¢	$20	4d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 53 history records