Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:51:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1bf6…a94d other 239 markets active 0h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$66 (-0%) realized −$66 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%15W / 223L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$221per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$21
14 days−$31
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$36
sports 19% −$13
politics 11% −$8
culture 9% −$8
crypto 6% −$5
economics 5% −$7
world 4% −$2
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 72 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 176 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 238 -0.1% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$66
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses15 / 223
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)238 / 239
History coverage132d
Avg bet$221
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 238 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 22 $367 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $439 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 22 $367 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 21 $225 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 21 $467 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 21 $51 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 21 $311 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 21 $136 $0 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 20 $52 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $423 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 20 $140 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 20 $433 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 20 $291 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 20 $173 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $133 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $620 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $434 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 19 $828 −$2 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 19 $551 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $209 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $352 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 18 $334 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $708 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $404 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $195 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $442 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $361 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $187 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $192 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $461 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $240 −$1 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $158 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $216 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $600 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $262 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 15 $55 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $312 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $331 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $55 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $162 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $550 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 14 $519 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $507 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $214 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $665 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $262 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $289 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $346 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $426 −$2 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $366 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $50 13m
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $50 2h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $50 4h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $50 5h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $50 7h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $50 9h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $50 11h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $50 12h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $50 13h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $50 15h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $51 17h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $2 17h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $49 18h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $51 19h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $51 21h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $51 23h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $51 24h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $51 26h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $51 27h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $51 29h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $51 31h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $51 32h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $51 33h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $51 35h
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 96¢ $51 40h
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 96¢ $52 42h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $51 42h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $51 43h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $51 45h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $52 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.06 · official $50.06 (match) · 1395 history records