Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:45:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1bf4…ef2e crypto 1829 markets active 0h ago coverage 18d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (102 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$289 (-8%) realized −$289 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate77%1671W / 499L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day101.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$247
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (102 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-22.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1131 -33.3% -39.6% 60% 24% -74.1%
≤30d 2170 -14.7% -22.8% 77% 28% -54.4%
≤90d 2170 -14.7% -22.8% 77% 28% -54.4%
all 2170 -14.7% -22.8% 77% 28% -54.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover101.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.8% 28% -54.4%
10% ← realistic here -30.2% 8% -58.8%
15% -37.0% 3% -62.8%
20% -43.1% 1% -66.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -50% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -50% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -35% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$8 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$289
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses1671 / 499
Open positions0
Markets (closed)2170 / 1829
History coverage18d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day101.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 2170 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Up 92¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+9%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Up 90¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Down 82¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Down 80¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - April 9, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Down 61¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Up 59¢ 0¢ $67 $0 −$67 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - April 10, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Up 58¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Down 89¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - April 9, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Down 57¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - April 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Up 70¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Up 60¢ 0¢ $67 $0 −$67 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Up 63¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Up 94¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - April 10, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Up 58¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Down 63¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Up 84¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Down 82¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Down 85¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Up 75¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - April 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Up 63¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - April 9, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Down 62¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Down 90¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Up 82¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 9, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $67 −$67 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 10, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 9, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $67 −$67 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 10, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 9, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 9, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 11, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 11, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 8, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $67 −$67 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 8, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 8, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 7, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $68 −$68 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 7, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 7, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 9, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $67 −$67 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $2 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.15 · official $2.15 (match) · 3500 history records