Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T11:55:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
1B 0x1bf4…25ed crypto 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (76 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$620 (+6%) realized +$620 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR71%break-even
Win rate71%10W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$692per market
Trades / day75.5pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% +$2,444
other 19% −$1,833
sports 8% +$397
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (76 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +71%
net ROI/market (all)+0.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +11.3% +0.7% 71% 71% -0.1%
≤30d 14 +11.3% +0.7% 71% 71% -0.1%
≤90d 14 +11.3% +0.7% 71% 71% -0.1%
all 14 +11.3% +0.7% 71% 71% -0.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover75.5 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.7% 71% -0.1%
10% -9.0% 71% -9.7%
15% ← realistic here -17.8% 57% -18.4%
20% -25.8% 43% -26.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 35% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$370 vs −$674 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$620
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses10 / 4
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage3d
Avg bet$692
Trades / day75.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL Cross Regional 2026: DNS vs LOS Jun 27 $278 +$143 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 27 $1,298 +$423 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 27 $710 +$170 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 27 $654 +$536 +82%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $520 +$254 +49%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $392 −$384 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $1,449 −$1,449 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 25 $720 +$356 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 25 $165 −$146 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 25 $715 −$715 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 25 $721 +$415 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 25 $514 +$258 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 24 $1,034 +$748 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 24 $516 +$400 +78%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL Cross Regional 2026: DNS vs LOS SELL DNS 100¢ $421 33m
LoL Cross Regional 2026: DNS vs LOS BUY DNS 66¢ $278 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $412 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1,302 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $586 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $586 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $126 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $853 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $710 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $654 2h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $516 6h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $258 6h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 67¢ $406 7h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 65¢ $9 7h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 65¢ $3 7h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 65¢ $32 7h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 65¢ $19 7h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 65¢ $27 7h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 65¢ $17 7h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 65¢ $4 7h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 65¢ $3 7h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 37¢ $392 36h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $1,449 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 7¢ $20 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $165 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $2 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 223 history records