Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T11:04:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1B 0x1bf2…f89c crypto 49 markets active 2h ago coverage 500d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate77%37W / 11L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 58% +$1
economics 12% $0
other 9% $0
politics 8% $0
tech 8% +$1
sports 4% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 7 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 48 +0.2% -9.3% 77% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.3%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 55% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.06 per $1 lost it wins $6.06
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

500d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses37 / 11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)48 / 49
History coverage500d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $46 $46 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? Jun 03 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? Jun 03 $32 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in April? May 05 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in April? May 05 $21 $0 +0%
Will Chainlink dip to $4 in March? Apr 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in March? Apr 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in March? Apr 02 $34 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in February? Mar 03 $36 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in January? Feb 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in January? Feb 02 $21 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in December? Jan 01 $4 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 01 $36 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November? Dec 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 03 $22 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by October 31? Nov 03 $35 +$1 +2%
Will Solana dip to $150 in September? Oct 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? Oct 03 $19 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $290 in August? Sep 01 $16 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $130 in August? Sep 01 $22 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in July? Aug 03 $18 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Aug 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in June? Jul 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3200 in June? Jul 02 $18 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 before June? Jun 21 $4 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in May? Jun 21 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? Jun 21 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump audit Ukraine aid before May? May 03 $5 $0 +0%
XRP all time high in April? May 03 $9 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap May 03 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin all time high in April? May 03 $12 $0 +1%
Will the People's party win the second most seats in the next Canadian Apr 19 $34 $0 -0%
Will Iceland win Eurovision 2025? Apr 09 $17 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in his first 100 days? Apr 09 $20 $0 -0%
Will the Athletics win the 2025 World Series? Apr 09 $17 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Apr 08 $30 $0 -0%
Will Silviu Predoiu win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 08 $15 $0 -0%
Ethereum all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $4 $0 +0%
Solana all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by March 31? Apr 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500.00 by March 31? Apr 02 $9 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2025 meeting? Mar 23 $41 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Mar 15 $15 $0 -0%
Will Jalen Milroe be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? Mar 11 $16 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $100 by February 28 2025? Mar 04 $5 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on February 28? Mar 04 $15 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 04 $17 +$1 +4%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the Western Conference? Feb 17 $13 $0 -0%
Brighton & Hove Albion wins the Premier League? Feb 17 $18 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $46 1h
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? BUY No 100¢ $9 30d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? BUY No 100¢ $32 30d
Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in April? BUY No 100¢ $13 61d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in April? BUY No 100¢ $21 63d
Will Chainlink dip to $4 in March? BUY No 100¢ $5 93d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in March? BUY No 100¢ $7 93d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in March? BUY No 100¢ $34 93d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in February? BUY No 100¢ $10 121d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in February? BUY No 100¢ $26 122d
Will XRP reach $4.00 in January? BUY No 100¢ $12 150d
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $21 150d
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in December? BUY No 100¢ $4 181d
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $36 183d
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November? BUY No 100¢ $14 211d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? BUY Yes 100¢ $22 211d
Ethereum all time high by October 31? BUY No 100¢ $11 241d
Ethereum all time high by October 31? BUY No 98¢ $23 242d
Will Solana dip to $150 in September? BUY No 100¢ $11 272d
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? BUY No 100¢ $19 273d
Will Solana reach $290 in August? BUY No 100¢ $16 302d
Will Solana dip to $130 in August? BUY No 100¢ $22 303d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $13 333d
Will Solana dip to $120 in July? BUY No 100¢ $18 334d
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in June? BUY No 100¢ $10 362d
Will Ethereum reach $3200 in June? BUY No 100¢ $18 365d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in May? BUY No 100¢ $6 393d
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? BUY No 100¢ $9 394d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 before June? BUY No 100¢ $4 396d
Will Trump audit Ukraine aid before May? BUY No 100¢ $5 424d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.69 · official $45.69 (match) · 103 history records