Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:58:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
1B 0x1bf1…ffbd sports 93 markets active 0h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$623 (+3%) realized +$1,518 · open −$895
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate59%54W / 37L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$237per market
Trades / day7.9pace
Fees−$264est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$418now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$788
7 days+$2
14 days+$364
30 days+$292
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$420
other 4% −$114
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-5.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 +7.7% -2.5% 58% 47% -9.5%
≤30d 83 +1.6% -8.1% 57% 46% -8.2%
≤90d 91 +4.3% -5.6% 59% 48% -7.9%
all 91 +4.3% -5.6% 59% 48% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.6% 48% -7.9%
10% -14.7% 40% -16.8%
15% -22.9% 35% -24.8%
20% -30.5% 25% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$96 vs −$131 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$418
Realized+$1,518
Unrealized−$895
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses54 / 37
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$264
Open positions2
Markets (closed)91 / 93
History coverage54d
Avg bet$237
Trades / day7.9
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 91 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner T1 Academy 56¢ 50¢ $467 $417 −$50 (-11%)
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner T1 Academy 63¢ 0¢ $845 $1 −$845 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $185 −$185 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $358 −$358 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $161 −$53 -33%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $233 −$173 -74%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 AND Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 AND Uzbekis Jun 18 $171 +$96 +56%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 AND Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 AND Portuga Jun 18 $1 +$1 +113%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $1,006 −$405 -40%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $174 +$26 +15%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $85 +$15 +18%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $134 −$107 -80%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $32 −$32 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $123 +$80 +65%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $148 −$148 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $326 −$239 -73%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $294 −$294 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $600 +$400 +67%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $36 +$64 +175%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $449 +$200 +45%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $423 −$203 -48%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $425 +$337 +79%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $539 +$261 +48%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $86 +$14 +16%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $775 +$25 +3%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $322 −$133 -41%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $513 +$21 +4%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $190 +$160 +85%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $170 +$11 +6%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $127 +$75 +59%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $883 −$134 -15%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $14 −$12 -85%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $159 −$159 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $181 +$29 +16%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $123 +$349 +283%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $354 +$352 +99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $470 +$313 +67%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $455 −$182 -40%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $881 −$94 -11%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $121 +$132 +109%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $283 −$164 -58%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $34 +$76 +221%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $10 +$11 +109%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $74 +$67 +90%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $78 −$78 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $354 +$33 +9%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $548 +$16 +3%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $461 +$24 +5%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $48 +$15 +31%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 15 $61 +$39 +63%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $363 +$205 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 56¢ $56 8m
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 54¢ $126 15m
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 57¢ $285 16m
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 63¢ $12 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 63¢ $49 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 63¢ $793 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 27¢ $1 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 27¢ $2 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 27¢ $4 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 27¢ $2 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 27¢ $2 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 27¢ $2 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 27¢ $2 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 27¢ $4 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 10¢ $21 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 27¢ $2 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 27¢ $2 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 12¢ $15 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 27¢ $2 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 27¢ $5 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 27¢ $2 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 27¢ $4 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 27¢ $2 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 27¢ $2 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 27¢ $4 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 27¢ $5 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 27¢ $2 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 27¢ $1 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 27¢ $5 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 27¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $417.58 · official $471.78 · 472 history records