Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T10:54:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1B
0x1bf1…1787
weather · 399 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$153 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$164 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$19
Realized−$164
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses311 / 69
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions19
Markets (closed)380 / 399
History coverage96d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 19 History 380 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on June 14? Yes 32¢ 46¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+42%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 14? Yes 38¢ 48¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+25%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 14? Yes 62¢ 77¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+25%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? Yes 40¢ 42¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? Yes 39¢ 40¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 14? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on June 14? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 14? Yes 55¢ 55¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 14? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 15? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 14? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 14? Yes 58¢ 56¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 14? Yes 52¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? Yes 49¢ 46¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 14? Yes 53¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 14? Yes 52¢ 48¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 14? Yes 53¢ 46¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI T1 67¢ 56¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-16%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? Yes 39¢ 32¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-18%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on March 23? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on March 18? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Down 83¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 8°C on March 14? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Down 69¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Up 74¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +143%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 14 $1 +$1 +91%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +75%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 14 $1 +$1 +78%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 14 $1 $0 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +81%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 56-57°F on May 5? May 06 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on May 5? May 06 $119 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on May 5? May 05 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ma May 05 $41 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C or higher on May 4? May 05 $40 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on May 4? May 05 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 22°C on May 5? May 05 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 22°C on May 5? May 05 $100 −$48 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on May 4? May 04 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C or higher on May 3? May 04 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 12°C on May 3? May 04 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on May 4? May 04 $104 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on May 3? May 04 $111 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on May 2? May 03 $179 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on May 2? May 02 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on May 2? May 02 $102 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 02 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 50-51°F on May 1? May 02 $101 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on May 1? May 02 $102 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 18°C on May 2? May 02 $103 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 54-55°F on April 30? May 01 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on April 30 May 01 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on April 30? May 01 $100 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C or higher on April 30 May 01 $127 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C or higher on April 3 Apr 30 $50 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 72°F or higher on April 29? Apr 30 $101 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 36°C on April 29? Apr 30 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 28°C or below on April 29? Apr 29 $50 −$7 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on April 29? Apr 29 $106 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on April 28? Apr 29 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 27°C or below on April 28? Apr 28 $100 −$76 -76%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 68°F or higher on April 27? Apr 28 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 30°C on April 28? Apr 28 $101 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ap Apr 28 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 44-45°F on April 27? Apr 28 $51 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C on April 28? Apr 28 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C or higher on April 27? Apr 28 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 27°C or below on April 27? Apr 27 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on April 27? Apr 27 $116 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 64-65°F on April 25? Apr 26 $78 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 4°C on April 26? Apr 26 $100 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 98% −$147
crypto 2% −$17
other 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 14? BUY Yes 55¢ $1 52m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 67¢ $1 57m
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 14? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 15? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 38¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY Yes 54¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 14? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on June 14? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 14? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 14? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 14? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 14? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 14? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? BUY Up 69¢ $1 25h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 13? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 25h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 51¢ $1 25h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 13? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 25h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 13? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 25h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 13? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 25h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 13? BUY Yes 56¢ $1 25h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY Yes 55¢ $1 25h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 13? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 25h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 22°C on May 5? SELL No 53¢ $53 40d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on May 5? BUY No 99¢ $119 41d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +63.3% +47.7% 89% 89% +47.8%
≤30d 9 +63.3% +47.7% 89% 89% +47.8%
≤90d 355 +1.0% -8.6% 86% 9% -10.9%
all 380 -0.3% -9.8% 82% 11% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 11% -11.4%
10% -18.5% 7% -19.9%
15% -26.3% 6% -27.6%
20% -33.6% 5% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.24 · official $19.24 (match) · 860 history records