Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:24:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1bef…40ae crypto 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$36 (+7%) realized +$36 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +583% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +426% what you keep after slip
Net edge+426%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%8W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day31.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+517.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +582.6% +517.6% 42% 42% -57.8%
≤30d 19 +582.6% +517.6% 42% 42% -57.8%
≤90d 19 +582.6% +517.6% 42% 42% -57.8%
all 19 +582.6% +517.6% 42% 42% -57.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +517.6% 42% -57.8%
10% ← realistic here +458.5% 42% -61.9%
15% +404.5% 42% -65.6%
20% +355.1% 37% -68.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 43% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +583% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +624% → late +545% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$22 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$36
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses8 / 11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage1d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day31.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 17 $27 +$14 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$16 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$30 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 17 $52 +$52 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$25 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$10 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $51 −$10 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$19 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$36 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Up 81¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $54 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $48 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Up 81¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Up 89¢ $49 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 73¢ $35 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 81¢ $41 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $42 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $59 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $25 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.38 · official $0.00 · 42 history records