Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T14:43:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

1B 0x1bef…9338 sports 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$14 (+6%) realized +$15 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip

Net edge-8%after slip

Net WR60%break-even

Win rate80%4W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$32per market

Trades / day1.5pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit71%portable

Net worth$78now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +60%

net ROI/market (all)-8.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	+1.6%	-8.0%	80%	60%	+1.9%
≤30d	5	+1.6%	-8.0%	80%	60%	+1.9%
≤90d	5	+1.6%	-8.0%	80%	60%	+1.9%
all	5	+1.6%	-8.0%	80%	60%	+1.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.5 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-8.0%	60%	+1.9%
10%	-16.8%	40%	-7.9%
15%	-24.9%	20%	-16.8%
20%	-32.2%	0%	-24.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 55% · top 2 82% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +13% too few recent

Fragile wins

25% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +2% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$9 vs −$19 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.96 per $1 lost it wins $1.96

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage

Net worth$78

Realized+$15

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)80%

Wins / losses4 / 1

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions2

Markets (closed)5 / 7

History coverage7d

Avg bet$32

Trades / day1.5

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 5 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Card)	Manuel Torres	52¢	52¢	$53	$52	−$1 (-1%)
UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Shara Magomedov (Middleweight, Main Card)	Shara Magomedov	77¢	76¢	$26	$25	−$1 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Shandong Taishan FC win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 27	$22	+$4	+18%
Piracicaba: Matias Soto vs Ignacio Monzon	Jun 22	$30	+$3	+8%
Piracicaba: Juan Bautista Torres vs Alex Hernandez	Jun 22	$30	+$10	+34%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 22	$43	+$20	+48%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw?	Jun 20	$19	−$19	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Shara Magomedov (Middleweight, Mai	BUY Shara Magomedov	77¢	$26	1h
Will Shandong Taishan FC win on 2026-06-27?	SELL Yes	100¢	$26	2h
Will Shandong Taishan FC win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	84¢	$22	3h
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca	BUY Manuel Torres	52¢	$54	3h
Piracicaba: Matias Soto vs Ignacio Monzon	SELL Matias Soto	98¢	$33	4d
Piracicaba: Juan Bautista Torres vs Alex Hernandez	SELL Juan Bautista Torres	100¢	$40	4d
Piracicaba: Matias Soto vs Ignacio Monzon	BUY Matias Soto	90¢	$30	4d
Piracicaba: Juan Bautista Torres vs Alex Hernandez	BUY Juan Bautista Torres	74¢	$30	4d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw?	BUY Yes	21¢	$19	6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	67¢	$43	6d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $77.97 · official $77.97 (match) · 11 history records