Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T21:26:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
1B 0x1bea…a7e6 other 25 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$111 (+18%) realized +$112 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate67%16W / 8L
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day32.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit12%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% +$69
sports 12% +$56
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +23.9% +12.1% 67% 46% +9.8%
≤30d 24 +23.9% +12.1% 67% 46% +9.8%
≤90d 24 +23.9% +12.1% 67% 46% +9.8%
all 24 +23.9% +12.1% 67% 46% +9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +12.1% 46% +9.8%
10% ← realistic here +1.4% 21% -0.7%
15% -8.4% 21% -10.3%
20% -17.4% 17% -19.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +39% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$1 · ×5.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×11.92 per $1 lost it wins $11.92
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized+$112
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses16 / 8
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)24 / 25
History coverage2d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day32.7
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Curaçao 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? No 95¢ 92¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 25 $37 +$15 +41%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Germany? Jun 25 $38 −$2 -5%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 1 Germany? Jun 25 $36 +$3 +9%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 2 Germany? Jun 25 $38 +$3 +8%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $20 +$35 +170%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Mexico O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $28 +$24 +85%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Mexico O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $29 −$2 -8%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Brazil? Jun 25 $37 +$6 +16%
Exact Score: Morocco 1 - 0 Haiti? Jun 25 $19 +$2 +13%
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 2 Haiti? Jun 24 $18 +$22 +124%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Brazil? Jun 24 $38 +$5 +13%
Exact Score: Morocco 2 - 3 Haiti? Jun 24 $20 $0 -2%
Exact Score: Morocco 2 - 2 Haiti? Jun 24 $39 −$3 -6%
Exact Score: Morocco 1 - 2 Haiti? Jun 24 $19 $0 -2%
Exact Score: Morocco 1 - 1 Haiti? Jun 24 $18 +$2 +13%
Exact Score: Morocco 0 - 1 Haiti? Jun 24 $19 +$1 +6%
Exact Score: Morocco 0 - 0 Haiti? Jun 24 $20 +$1 +6%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 0 Brazil? Jun 24 $20 +$1 +4%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2 - 0 Qatar? Jun 24 $28 +$3 +12%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 1 - 0 Qatar? Jun 24 $14 +$2 +14%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Canada? Jun 24 $13 +$11 +86%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2 - 1 Qatar? Jun 24 $14 −$1 -6%
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 24 $10 $0 -4%
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $20 −$3 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? SELL No 99¢ $47 1m
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? SELL No 99¢ $3 1m
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? SELL No 99¢ $2 1m
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY No 70¢ $37 1m
Exact Score: Curaçao 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY No 95¢ $40 1m
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Germany? SELL No 86¢ $10 10m
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Germany? SELL No 86¢ $20 10m
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Germany? SELL No 86¢ $6 11m
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 1 Germany? SELL No 93¢ $39 20m
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Germany? BUY No 91¢ $38 20m
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 1 Germany? BUY No 85¢ $36 20m
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 2 Germany? SELL No 99¢ $42 1h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 2 Germany? BUY No 91¢ $38 1h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: South Africa O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $55 19h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: South Africa O/U 0.5 BUY Over 36¢ $20 19h
Czechia vs. Mexico: Mexico O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $52 19h
Czechia vs. Mexico: Mexico O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $28 19h
Czechia vs. Mexico: Mexico O/U 0.5 SELL Over 81¢ $26 20h
Czechia vs. Mexico: Mexico O/U 0.5 BUY Over 88¢ $29 20h
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 2 Haiti? SELL No 90¢ $40 21h
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 2 Haiti? BUY No 40¢ $18 21h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Brazil? SELL No 99¢ $26 22h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Brazil? BUY No 76¢ $20 22h
Exact Score: Morocco 2 - 3 Haiti? SELL No 93¢ $20 22h
Exact Score: Morocco 2 - 3 Haiti? BUY No 95¢ $20 22h
Exact Score: Morocco 2 - 2 Haiti? SELL No 83¢ $18 22h
Exact Score: Morocco 2 - 2 Haiti? BUY No 89¢ $19 22h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Brazil? SELL No 78¢ $18 22h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Brazil? BUY No 81¢ $19 22h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Brazil? BUY No 82¢ $18 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.71 · official $38.71 (match) · 64 history records