Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T01:57:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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1B 0x1bdc…f776 sports 54 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (169 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,846 (+16%) realized +$1,392 · open +$2,454
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate38%20W / 33L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown69%max
Avg bet$451per market
Trades / day168.6pace
Fees−$559est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$3,998now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$6,783
other 2% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (169 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -10.5% -19.0% 38% 36% +10.1%
≤30d 53 -10.5% -19.0% 38% 36% +10.1%
≤90d 53 -10.5% -19.0% 38% 36% +10.1%
all 53 -10.5% -19.0% 38% 36% +10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover168.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.0% 36% +10.1%
10% ← realistic here -26.8% 34% -0.4%
15% -33.9% 32% -10.0%
20% -40.3% 30% -18.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +22% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$515) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -48% → late +26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$519 vs −$183 · ×2.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.71 per $1 lost it wins $1.71
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$3,998
Realized+$1,392
Unrealized+$2,454
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses20 / 33
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$559
Open positions1
Markets (closed)53 / 54
History coverage3d
Avg bet$451
Trades / day168.6
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Under 39¢ 100¢ $1,544 $3,998 +$2,454 (+159%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $1,720 +$391 +23%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $2,290 +$1,493 +65%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $35 +$65 +185%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $80 +$120 +150%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $390 −$390 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $348 −$345 -99%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $118 −$115 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $440 −$439 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $630 −$630 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $771 +$352 +46%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $43 −$14 -34%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $165 +$7 +4%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $140 −$140 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $856 +$646 +76%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $170 +$329 +193%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $245 −$221 -90%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $235 +$264 +112%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $907 +$498 +55%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $40 +$88 +220%
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $538 +$276 +51%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $75 +$15 +20%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $682 +$702 +103%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $350 +$650 +186%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $236 −$66 -28%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $750 +$1,295 +173%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $333 −$327 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $169 −$1 -1%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $54 −$54 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $276 −$271 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $344 −$337 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $47 −$47 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $217 −$216 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $650 −$647 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $350 −$350 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $150 −$150 -100%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $450 −$450 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $90 +$210 +233%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $16 −$16 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $75 −$75 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $60 −$60 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $550 +$450 +82%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $82 −$82 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $103 −$57 -55%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $470 −$7 -2%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $515 +$485 +94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $0 43m
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 60¢ $37 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 60¢ $3 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 60¢ $10 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 60¢ $2 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 60¢ $5 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 60¢ $3 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 59¢ $38 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 59¢ $15 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 59¢ $3 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 59¢ $1 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 59¢ $2 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 58¢ $115 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 58¢ $41 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 58¢ $43 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 58¢ $5 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 58¢ $9 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 58¢ $2 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 57¢ $52 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 57¢ $5 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 56¢ $37 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 56¢ $1 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 56¢ $15 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 56¢ $2 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 56¢ $1 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 55¢ $55 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 82¢ $148 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 50¢ $64 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 50¢ $66 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 50¢ $20 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,998.05 · official $3,998.05 (match) · 543 history records