Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T03:09:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1bdb…8c85 other 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 15d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$5 (-1%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%1W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit22%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$13
14 days−$13
30 days−$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% −$14
crypto 1% −$5
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-27.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -8.4% -17.1% 25% 0% -14.5%
≤30d 8 -19.3% -27.0% 12% 0% -16.3%
≤90d 8 -19.3% -27.0% 12% 0% -16.3%
all 8 -19.3% -27.0% 12% 0% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.0% 0% -16.3%
10% -34.0% 0% -24.3%
15% -40.3% 0% -31.6%
20% -46.2% 0% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses1 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage15d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $48 $47 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $110 −$8 -7%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $105 −$3 -3%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $15 +$1 +7%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $10 −$3 -31%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 $0 -7%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $2 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $5 $0 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 56m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $95 56m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 22¢ $109 57m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $101 59m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $51 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 93¢ $16 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 86¢ $15 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 2¢ $7 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $103 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 8d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $2 8d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 8d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 14d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 14d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 15d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 15d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $5 15d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 15d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 15d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.39 · official $47.39 (match) · 27 history records