Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:15:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1B
0x1bd5…f114
crypto · 119 markets active 5d ago
0.0score
−$1,973 -61%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,385 · open −$588
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$1,004
Realized−$1,385
Unrealized−$588
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses3 / 102
Open positions14
Markets (closed)105 / 119
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%
Chart Positions 14 History 105 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? No 1¢ 1¢ $1,400 $900 −$500 (-36%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $50 $58 +$8 (+17%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $36 $15 −$21 (-58%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $50 $15 −$35 (-70%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $46 $8 −$38 (-83%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-10%)
Abstract FDV above $2.5B one day after launch? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+32%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-35%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" this week? (April 12) Yes 8¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 19? No 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Trump say "King" during King Charles visit? No 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Trump talk to Mark Carney in April? No 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 23? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Down 12¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 24? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? No 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in March? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Up 3¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 March 16-22? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump say "N Word" this week? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -96%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Powell say "Good Afternoon" during April press conference? Apr 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 29 $700 −$694 -99%
Will Trump say "N Word" in April? Apr 28 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Trump say "Free World" during King Charles visit? Apr 28 $3 −$3 -96%
Will Trump say "Windsor" during King Charles visit? Apr 28 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Trump say "King" during King Charles visit? Apr 28 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Trump say "Potato" this week? (April 12) Apr 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Tube" this week? (April 12) Apr 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Six Seven" this week? (April 12) Apr 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" this week? (April 12) Apr 11 $5 −$5 -100%
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? Apr 11 $45 −$45 -100%
US x Iran meeting by April 11, 2026? Apr 11 $10 −$7 -68%
US x Iran meeting by April 14, 2026? Apr 11 $5 −$5 -100%
US x Iran meeting by April 13, 2026? Apr 11 $5 −$5 -100%
US x Iran meeting by April 12, 2026? Apr 11 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 09 $12 −$11 -92%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Apr 09 $1 −$1 -100%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 08 $348 −$190 -55%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $110 in April? Apr 07 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Trump's remarks not air? Apr 06 $13 −$13 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? Apr 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026? Apr 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 6, 2026? Apr 06 $1 −$1 -100%
US announces military support of Iran opposition by April 30? Apr 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Clavicular get frame mogged by Gorlock the Destroyer on stream du Apr 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from April 7 to Apri Apr 06 $5 −$3 -64%
Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from April 3 to April Apr 06 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Donald Trump post 20-39 Truth Social posts from April 3 to April Apr 06 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Donald Trump post 20-39 Truth Social posts from April 7 to April Apr 06 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from April 7 to April 1 Apr 06 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Trump talk to Mark Carney in April? Apr 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 03 $31 −$31 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 03 $31 −$31 -100%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 03 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Address to the Nation? Apr 01 $21 −$21 -100%
EdgeX FDV above $10B one day after launch? Mar 31 $1 −$1 -100%
EdgeX FDV above $5B one day after launch? Mar 31 $1 −$1 -100%
EdgeX FDV above $4B one day after launch? Mar 31 $1 −$1 -100%
EdgeX FDV above $3B one day after launch? Mar 31 $1 −$1 -100%
EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch? Mar 31 $1 −$1 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31? Mar 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31? Mar 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Russia capture Rodynske by March 31? Mar 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Mar 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? Mar 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will annual inflation increase by 2.5% in March? Mar 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will annual inflation increase by 2.6% in March? Mar 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will annual inflation increase by 2.7% in March? Mar 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
economics 78% −$1,434
world 14% −$289
politics 3% −$97
other 3% −$83
crypto 2% −$58
finance 0% −$8
sports 0% −$3
tech 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 1¢ $38 4d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $52 4d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 1¢ $945 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 4d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 4d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 4d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 4d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 4d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 4d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 4d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 4d
Will Trump say "N Word" this week? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 4d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 2¢ $457 19d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 3¢ $13 19d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 2¢ $40 19d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 2¢ $13 19d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $48 30d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $52 31d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 42d
Will Powell say "Good Afternoon" during April press conference? BUY No 1¢ $2 43d
Will Powell say "Good Afternoon" during April press conference? BUY No 1¢ $0 43d
Will Powell say "Good Afternoon" during April press conference? BUY No 1¢ $2 43d
Will Powell say "Good Afternoon" during April press conference? BUY No 1¢ $6 43d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY No 0¢ $101 43d
Will Trump say "N Word" in April? BUY Yes 1¢ $9 44d
Will Trump say "Free World" during King Charles visit? BUY No 0¢ $1 44d
Will Trump say "Windsor" during King Charles visit? BUY No 0¢ $1 44d
Will Trump say "Free World" during King Charles visit? BUY No 0¢ $1 44d
Will Trump say "Free World" during King Charles visit? BUY No 2¢ $1 44d
Will Trump say "King" during King Charles visit? BUY No 0¢ $1 44d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-94.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 104 -93.9% -94.5% 3% 3% -95.9%
all 105 -93.9% -94.5% 3% 3% -96.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -94.5% 3% -96.1%
10% -95.0% 3% -96.4%
15% -95.5% 3% -96.8%
20% -96.0% 3% -97.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,004.27 · official $1,004.27 (match) · 193 history records