Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:34:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
1B 0x1bd4…4f29 crypto 76 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$75 (+4%) realized +$75 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate80%61W / 15L
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day27.4pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$64
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)-5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 76 +4.7% -5.3% 80% 75% -6.7%
≤30d 76 +4.7% -5.3% 80% 75% -6.7%
≤90d 76 +4.7% -5.3% 80% 75% -6.7%
all 76 +4.7% -5.3% 80% 75% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.3% 75% -6.7%
10% ← realistic here -14.4% 43% -15.6%
15% -22.6% 17% -23.8%
20% -30.2% 8% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$26 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$75
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses61 / 15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)76 / 76
History coverage3d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day27.4
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 76 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$6 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$8 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$9 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$6 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$5 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$8 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$6 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$8 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$6 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$8 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$5 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$7 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$17 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$29 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$6 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$6 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$9 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$7 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$13 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $30 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$6 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$9 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$12 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$7 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$13 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$13 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$10 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$9 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$12 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $30 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $30 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $30 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $31 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $31 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $30 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $30 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $30 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $30 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $30 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $30 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $31 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $30 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $30 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $30 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $30 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $30 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $31 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $30 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $31 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $30 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $31 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $30 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $30 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $31 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $30 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 138 history records