Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:12:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1bd3…4908 other 50 markets active 2h ago coverage 452d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$42 (+7%) realized +$42 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip
Net edge+14%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate36%18W / 32L
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 33% +$43
world 30% −$2
crypto 18% +$2
politics 10% $0
sports 7% $0
economics 2% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)+14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 8 -1.1% -10.5% 0% 0% -10.8%
≤90d 8 -1.1% -10.5% 0% 0% -10.8%
all 50 +26.1% +14.1% 36% 6% -3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.1% 6% -3.3%
10% +3.2% 4% -12.5%
15% -6.8% 4% -21.0%
20% -15.9% 4% -28.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 93% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +43% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×5.47 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.18 per $1 lost it wins $5.18
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

452d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$42
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses18 / 32
Open positions0
Markets (closed)50 / 50
History coverage452d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 50 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $30 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $2 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $27 $0 -2%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $8 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $30 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $28 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $27 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $30 −$2 -6%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Dec 16 $2 −$1 -34%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 60% and 100% on August 1 Jun 28 $10 $0 +1%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 27 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Jun 26 $41 +$1 +4%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 20 $2 $0 +16%
Will 'Jurassic World: Rebirth' have the best domestic opening weekend Jun 18 $10 $0 -0%
Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? Jun 17 $10 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in June? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 16 $12 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 12 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 10 $11 $0 -0%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jun 09 $12 $0 -0%
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Jun 08 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 320–334 times May 30–June 6? Jun 08 $4 +$13 +338%
Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 20-23%? Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Will Lee Jun-seok win between 2% and 5% of the vote in the South Korea Jun 01 $6 $0 +2%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? May 31 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2500 on May 30? May 31 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum above $2,800 on May 30? May 30 $5 $0 +3%
Will Karol Nawrocki win by over 8%? May 29 $2 $0 -2%
Will Alexis Ohanian buy TikTok before July? May 29 $5 $0 -1%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 27 $4 $0 -1%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 26 $5 −$3 -61%
Will Anthony Edwards Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? May 26 $40 $0 -0%
Will federal spending decrease by $500-750b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 May 25 $44 $0 +0%
Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the May 21 $8 +$1 +10%
Will Nicușor Dan win by 6–12%? May 21 $3 +$36 +1166%
Will Dan or Simion win the diaspora vote? May 16 $8 −$1 -13%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? May 15 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Socialist Party win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese leg May 14 $9 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? May 11 $12 $0 +0%
Will Oprah Winfrey be named in Epstein files? May 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the May 10 $1 $0 -9%
Will Leonardo DiCaprio be named in Epstein files? May 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 09 $10 $0 +1%
Will Fridolin Ambongo Besungu be the next pope? May 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres May 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 08 $2 $0 +3%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? May 08 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? May 07 $15 −$2 -15%
Will Solana dip to $100 by March? Mar 31 $15 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $30 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 48¢ $30 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $2 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $2 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $20 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $7 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 61¢ $27 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 63¢ $8 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 63¢ $8 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $30 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $30 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 55¢ $2 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 55¢ $26 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 55¢ $28 10d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $27 12d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $27 12d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 62¢ $28 13d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 66¢ $30 13d
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? SELL Yes $0 188d
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 60% and 100% on August 1 SELL No 99¢ $10 359d
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? SELL No 95¢ $5 360d
Ethereum all time high by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $41 361d
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? SELL Yes $1 367d
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? SELL Yes $1 367d
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? SELL Yes $0 367d
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? SELL Yes $0 368d
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 60% and 100% on August 1 BUY No 98¢ $10 369d
Will 'Jurassic World: Rebirth' have the best domestic opening weekend SELL No 98¢ $10 369d
Will 'Jurassic World: Rebirth' have the best domestic opening weekend BUY No 98¢ $10 369d
Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? SELL No 98¢ $10 370d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 153 history records