Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:13:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
1B 0x1bd2…1ce8 crypto 865 markets active 0h ago coverage 34d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 33d only
✗ bot/MM pace (67 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$808 (-4%) realized −$799 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate64%550W / 313L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day66.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$23
7 days+$8
14 days−$257
30 days−$678
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$923
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (67 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 179 +5.2% -4.8% 45% 45% -9.2%
≤30d 803 -2.8% -12.0% 64% 56% -14.2%
≤90d 863 -2.1% -11.4% 64% 56% -13.6%
all 863 -2.1% -11.4% 64% 56% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover66.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.4% 56% -13.6%
10% ← realistic here -19.9% 39% -21.8%
15% -27.6% 23% -29.4%
20% -34.7% 15% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$22 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$799
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses550 / 313
Open positions2
Markets (closed)863 / 865
History coverage34d ⚠
Avg bet$24
Trades / day66.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 863 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Down 33¢ 68¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+105%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Up 31¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$14 +257%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $16 +$57 +359%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$3 +129%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$20 +188%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $11 +$26 +252%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $16 +$28 +176%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$4 +152%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $11 +$25 +240%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $18 +$33 +184%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$11 +218%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $18 +$38 +208%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$3 +101%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$3 +124%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$4 +110%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$7 +166%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$7 +166%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$7 +129%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$8 +146%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$9 +181%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$127 +481%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +90%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $3 0m
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $3 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $4 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 12m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $4 32m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 32m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 32m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 32m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 41m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 41m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $3 41m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $3 41m
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $4 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $3 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $3 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $3 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.99 · official $29.21 (match) · 3500 history records