Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T10:02:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
1B 0x1bcd…35cf crypto 1224 markets active 6d ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,110 (-3%) realized −$4,110 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate64%787W / 437L
Whale WR52%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$109per market
Trades / day19.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$30
14 days−$14
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$5,440
world 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +20.0% +8.5% 65% 65% -12.1%
≤30d 20 +27.0% +14.9% 70% 70% -10.7%
≤90d 193 -4.6% -13.7% 75% 46% -22.6%
all 1224 -5.4% -14.4% 64% 46% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 46% -13.2%
10% -22.6% 33% -21.5%
15% -30.1% 26% -29.1%
20% -36.9% 18% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 52% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -8% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$113 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4,110
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses787 / 437
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1224 / 1224
History coverage118d
Avg bet$109
Trades / day19.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1224 Trades
no open positions (284 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $82 −$79 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 14 $184 −$180 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $154 +$90 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 13 $102 +$74 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 13 $51 +$27 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 13 $51 +$21 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 13 $41 +$14 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 13 $25 +$15 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $14 +$12 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 13 $9 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $136 −$130 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 13 $103 −$55 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $47 +$152 +320%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 13 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $51 −$5 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 13 $26 +$25 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 13 $20 +$5 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$8 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Mar 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Mar 27 $115 −$114 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Mar 27 $214 −$211 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Mar 27 $200 +$130 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Mar 27 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Mar 27 $100 −$99 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Mar 27 $200 +$194 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Mar 27 $131 +$77 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Mar 27 $100 −$99 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Mar 26 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Mar 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Mar 26 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Mar 26 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Mar 26 $200 +$74 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Mar 26 $7 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Mar 26 $16 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Mar 26 $9 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Mar 26 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Mar 26 $7 +$3 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Mar 26 $7 +$3 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Mar 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Mar 26 $12 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Mar 26 $14 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Mar 26 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Mar 26 $9 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Mar 26 $6 +$3 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Mar 26 $6 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Mar 26 $11 +$3 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Mar 26 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Mar 26 $6 +$5 +82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $82 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $92 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $92 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $244 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $51 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $93 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $51 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $52 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $78 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $51 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $72 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $51 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $55 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $20 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $20 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $21 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $42 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $94 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Up 28¢ $48 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $103 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $21 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2953 history records