Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:28:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
1B 0x1bcb…435c world 101 markets active 0h ago coverage 50d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$138 (+41%) realized +$103 · open +$35
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate66%37W / 19L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day6.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$155now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$8
14 days+$16
30 days+$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% +$32
other 17% −$6
politics 14% +$14
crypto 10% +$31
sports 3% $0
economics 3% −$4
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -7.1% -15.9% 56% 11% -33.8%
≤30d 42 +12.2% +1.5% 67% 26% +10.5%
≤90d 56 +26.6% +14.6% 66% 25% +7.2%
all 56 +26.6% +14.6% 66% 25% +7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.6% 25% +7.2%
10% +3.6% 16% -3.0%
15% -6.4% 14% -12.4%
20% -15.6% 14% -21.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 71% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +61% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.79 per $1 lost it wins $1.79
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$155
Realized+$103
Unrealized+$35
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses37 / 19
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions45
Markets (closed)56 / 101
History coverage50d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 45 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 43¢ 100¢ $27 $64 +$37 (+133%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 73¢ 88¢ $11 $14 +$2 (+20%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Yes 43¢ 28¢ $11 $7 −$4 (-33%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 89¢ 83¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-7%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 43¢ 86¢ $3 $6 +$3 (+102%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 41¢ 100¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+142%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 97¢ 100¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+3%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30? No 93¢ 97¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-0%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 38¢ 100¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+163%)
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? Yes 12¢ 31¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+155%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will New York use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? No 96¢ 97¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 17, 2026? Yes 66¢ 42¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-37%)
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30? Yes 10¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+72%)
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? Yes 34¢ 44¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+29%)
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 17, 2026? No 90¢ 58¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-35%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 47¢ 56¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+18%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 31¢ 36¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 12¢ 13¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 91¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? No 82¢ 85¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Yes 54¢ 56¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? Yes 71¢ 72¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 17 $1 $0 +6%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $3 $0 -16%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $2 +$3 +129%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 14, 2026? Jun 14 $1 $0 +5%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $1 $0 +4%
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 10 $7 −$3 -43%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 10 $12 −$6 -50%
Will Ken Calvert advance from the CA-40 primary election? Jun 10 $1 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $1 $0 +1%
Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026? Jun 09 $1 $0 +2%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $1 $0 +5%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $1 $0 +25%
Bahrain vs. Syria: O/U 5.5 Jun 08 $1 $0 +0%
Bahrain vs. Syria: O/U 3.5 Jun 08 $2 $0 -18%
Spread: Bahrain (-1.5) Jun 08 $3 $0 -9%
Spread: Bahrain (-2.5) Jun 08 $3 +$1 +22%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 08 $2 $0 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 22? Jun 07 $1 $0 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 07 $3 $0 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $3 −$3 -97%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $1 $0 +0%
Will Xavier Becerra advance from the 2026 California Governor primary Jun 06 $2 $0 +6%
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in May? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $1 $0 +10%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 20 Jun 04 $1 $0 +11%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $33 +$28 +85%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $2 +$3 +145%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $2 −$1 -44%
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by May 31? Jun 01 $1 $0 +2%
Epstein suicide note released by May 31? Jun 01 $3 +$1 +22%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31? Jun 01 $1 +$8 +785%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $2 +$2 +101%
Will Trump say "Bahrain" this week? May 31 $1 $0 +18%
Major US official out by May 31? May 22 $1 +$1 +92%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 15? May 19 $1 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 16 $5 +$1 +10%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026? May 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026? May 16 $1 +$1 +122%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? May 12 $6 −$4 -59%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 09 $2 −$1 -42%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Spirit Airlines shutdown/liquidation by May 31? May 02 $1 $0 +1%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? May 01 $1 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $1 22m
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? BUY No 59¢ $1 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 1h
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 83¢ $1 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 3h
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 3 BUY Yes $1 3h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 3h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 3h
Trump meets with Korean leader Lee Jae-Myung by June 30? BUY Yes 97¢ $1 3h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 56¢ $1 3h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 3h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 56¢ $1 4h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 4h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 4h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $1 4h
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 17, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $1 4h
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 79¢ $1 4h
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 4h
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 17, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $1 4h
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 4h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 5h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 6h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $1 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $155.00 · official $154.98 (match) · 418 history records