Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T08:49:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
1B 0x1bc5…591e crypto 62 markets active 2h ago coverage 539d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate75%46W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$112per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% −$6
crypto 14% +$3
other 6% −$1
politics 1% $0
world 0% $0
tech 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 7 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 61 +0.1% -9.4% 75% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 43% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

539d coverage
Net worth$69
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses46 / 15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)61 / 62
History coverage539d
Avg bet$112
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $69 $69 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 03 $27 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 03 $46 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? May 04 $7 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $900 in April? May 04 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in April? May 04 $62 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in March? Apr 01 $19 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in March? Apr 01 $54 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $48 in February? Mar 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in February? Mar 03 $51 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.60 in January? Feb 02 $30 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in January? Feb 02 $33 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $6.00 before 2026? Jan 01 $33 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 01 $38 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.60 in November? Dec 03 $21 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,200 in November? Dec 03 $52 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95k in October? Nov 04 $11 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $5600 in October? Nov 04 $21 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by October 31? Nov 04 $34 +$1 +3%
Will Solana reach $300 in September? Oct 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in September? Oct 03 $22 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in September? Oct 03 $41 $0 +0%
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31? Sep 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $2.30 in August? Sep 02 $18 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3300 in August? Sep 02 $52 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in July? Aug 04 $64 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Jul 03 $26 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.8 in June? Jul 03 $36 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? Jun 19 $3 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in May? Jun 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? Jun 19 $11 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high in April? May 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? May 02 $2 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in April? May 02 $3 $0 +0%
Will Xi visit the US before May? May 02 $4 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.28 in April? May 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? May 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump audit Ukraine aid before May? May 02 $27 $0 +0%
Will the next Government of Canada be led by another party or coalitio Apr 20 $66 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2025 National League Championship? Apr 20 $65 $0 -0%
Will SER hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Apr 18 $68 $0 -0%
Will Kirill Kaprizov win the Hart Trophy? Apr 17 $136 $0 -0%
Will 'Thunderbolts*' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Apr 16 $59 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 02 $7 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 by March? Apr 02 $9 $0 +1%
Solana all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 08 $5,238 −$5 -0%
Will Trump post 140-159 times on Truth Feb 21-28? Mar 05 $14 $0 +0%
Will Solana hit $250 by February 28 2025? Mar 05 $15 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.35 by February 28 2025? 1 Mar 05 $16 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $69 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $27 29d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $46 30d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $7 61d
Will BNB reach $900 in April? BUY No 100¢ $9 63d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in April? BUY No 100¢ $62 63d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in March? BUY No 100¢ $19 92d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in March? BUY No 100¢ $54 92d
Will Hyperliquid reach $48 in February? BUY No 100¢ $14 123d
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in February? BUY No 100¢ $51 123d
Will XRP reach $3.60 in January? BUY No 100¢ $30 150d
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in January? BUY No 100¢ $33 150d
Will XRP reach $6.00 before 2026? BUY No 100¢ $33 182d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $38 183d
Will XRP reach $3.60 in November? BUY No 100¢ $21 212d
Will Ethereum reach $5,200 in November? BUY No 100¢ $52 212d
Will Bitcoin dip to $95k in October? BUY No 99¢ $11 241d
Will Ethereum reach $5600 in October? BUY No 100¢ $21 241d
Ethereum all time high by October 31? BUY No 97¢ $34 242d
Will Solana reach $300 in September? BUY No 100¢ $10 272d
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in September? BUY No 100¢ $22 273d
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in September? BUY No 100¢ $41 273d
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31? BUY No 100¢ $7 301d
Will XRP dip to $2.30 in August? BUY No 100¢ $18 301d
Will Ethereum dip to $3300 in August? BUY No 100¢ $52 303d
Will Solana dip to $120 in July? BUY No 100¢ $17 333d
Will Solana dip to $120 in July? BUY No 100¢ $47 334d
Will XRP reach $2.8 in June? BUY No 100¢ $36 365d
Ethereum all time high by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $26 366d
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? BUY No 100¢ $3 394d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.26 · official $69.26 (match) · 129 history records