Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:09:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1bc2…578a crypto 12 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (53 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$787 (-37%) realized −$525 · open −$185
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%4W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$179per market
Trades / day53.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$710
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-41.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -35.4% -41.5% 36% 36% -39.9%
≤30d 11 -35.4% -41.5% 36% 36% -39.9%
≤90d 11 -35.4% -41.5% 36% 36% -39.9%
all 11 -35.4% -41.5% 36% 36% -39.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover53.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -41.5% 36% -39.9%
10% ← realistic here -47.1% 36% -45.7%
15% -52.2% 36% -50.9%
20% -56.9% 27% -55.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 65% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$113 vs −$140 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized−$525
Unrealized−$185
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses4 / 7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$179
Trades / day53.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Up 59¢ 14¢ $240 $55 −$185 (-77%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 17 $135 +$183 +136%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $155 +$113 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $167 +$108 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $289 −$280 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 17 $155 −$150 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 17 $120 −$115 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $238 −$230 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $101 −$97 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $128 +$48 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $41 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $103 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $103 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $215 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $102 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $103 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $103 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $104 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $31 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $289 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $10 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $31 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $10 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $103 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $16 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $52 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $52 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $3 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $160 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $16 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $16 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $103 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $103 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $102 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $103 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $52 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $0 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $0 59m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.55 · official $248.51 · 58 history records