Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:34:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1bc1…116c crypto 510 markets active 2h ago coverage 540d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$104 (+2%) realized +$104 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate68%346W / 163L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$34
7 days+$152
14 days+$166
30 days+$102
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% +$4
sports 25% −$6
economics 1% −$1
other 1% −$14
world 0% +$87
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +62.3% +46.8% 71% 21% +8.4%
≤30d 102 +12.5% +1.8% 71% 16% -5.4%
≤90d 222 +6.6% -3.6% 73% 16% -4.8%
all 509 -2.6% -11.8% 68% 26% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 26% -8.5%
10% -20.3% 20% -17.2%
15% -28.0% 17% -25.2%
20% -35.0% 15% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

540d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized+$104
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses346 / 163
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)509 / 510
History coverage540d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 509 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 24? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $26 $26 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 60 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $51 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 23? Jun 23 $166 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $6 −$2 -35%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $38 +$6 +15%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 23? Jun 23 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 23? Jun 23 $6 −$6 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $66 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $76 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 21? Jun 21 $38 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $21 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $11 +$202 +1904%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $11 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 19? Jun 19 $10 +$8 +81%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $11 −$11 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $37 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $11 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? Jun 18 $21 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $21 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 18? Jun 18 $16 −$15 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $11 +$5 +50%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 17? Jun 17 $27 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $48 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $5 +$4 +75%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $5 +$3 +55%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $12 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $51 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $7 +$8 +114%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 11? Jun 12 $21 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 10? Jun 11 $13 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $16 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 10? Jun 11 $42 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $5 +$8 +154%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $4 +$2 +50%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 9? Jun 10 $15 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $22 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $23 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 9? Jun 10 $27 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $21 +$11 +52%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $11 −$7 -59%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 7? Jun 08 $16 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 7? Jun 08 $21 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $26 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 23? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 23? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 23? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 23? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? SELL Yes 92¢ $43 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 23? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 3h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 23? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 4h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 23? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 6h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $101 6h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 23? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? SELL Yes 99¢ $66 8h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 67¢ $17 8h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 23? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 9h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 9h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.96 · official $25.96 (match) · 1393 history records