Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:54:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1B 0x1bc0…a610 crypto 65 markets active 12h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$7 (+9%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate52%34W / 31L
Drawdown79%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% +$5
economics 11% −$3
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-3.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -11.6% -20.0% 44% 44% -32.3%
≤30d 11 -7.4% -16.3% 45% 45% -27.2%
≤90d 65 +6.5% -3.6% 52% 48% -6.7%
all 65 +6.5% -3.6% 52% 48% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.6% 48% -6.7%
10% -12.8% 43% -15.7%
15% -21.3% 37% -23.8%
20% -29.0% 29% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses34 / 31
Open positions0
Markets (closed)65 / 65
History coverage58d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 65 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 16 $3 −$3 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7AM ET May 17 $1 $0 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET May 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET May 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET May 13 $1 +$1 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET May 13 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET May 13 $1 $0 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET May 13 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET May 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET May 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET May 12 $1 +$1 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET May 12 $1 $0 -48%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 12 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET May 12 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET May 12 $1 +$1 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET May 08 $3 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 7? May 07 $1 −$1 -75%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 07 $1 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 7? May 07 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Apr 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Apr 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Apr 23 $1 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Apr 23 $1 +$1 +142%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Apr 23 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Apr 23 $1 +$1 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Apr 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Apr 23 $1 +$3 +264%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Apr 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Apr 22 $1 +$7 +742%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Apr 22 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Apr 22 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Apr 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on April 21? Apr 21 $1 $0 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Apr 21 $1 +$1 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Apr 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Apr 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Apr 21 $1 −$1 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Apr 21 $1 $0 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Apr 21 $1 +$1 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Apr 21 $1 +$1 +92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10AM ET SELL Up 7¢ $0 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1AM ET SELL Down 73¢ $2 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $2 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 37h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 0¢ $0 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7AM ET SELL Up 5¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7AM ET SELL Up 12¢ $1 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $0 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 0¢ $0 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $2 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $2 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 83¢ $2 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 131 history records