Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T21:32:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1bbe…776d other 110 markets active 0h ago coverage 174d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$16,748 (-11%) realized −$13,681 · open −$3,067
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate34%32W / 63L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,345per market
Trades / day10.5pace
Fees−$154est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$57,683now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10,063
7 days−$9,239
14 days−$10,182
30 days−$10,778
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$10,783
crypto 38% −$4,108
sports 7% −$3,101
world 1% +$471
economics 0% +$80
tech 0% −$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-33.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -59.7% -63.5% 21% 17% -59.0%
≤30d 46 -35.1% -41.3% 24% 22% -44.3%
≤90d 62 -42.2% -47.7% 21% 18% -47.6%
all 95 -26.9% -33.9% 34% 24% -28.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.5 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -33.9% 24% -28.3%
10% ← realistic here -40.2% 22% -35.2%
15% -46.0% 19% -41.4%
20% -51.3% 16% -47.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -42% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$920) neutral
Persistence
early -16% → late -38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
12.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$380 vs −$422 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

174d coverage
Net worth$57,683
Realized−$13,681
Unrealized−$3,067
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses32 / 63
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$154
Open positions15
Markets (closed)95 / 110
History coverage174d
Avg bet$1,345
Trades / day10.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 95 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 80¢ 79¢ $40,048 $39,625 −$423 (-1%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $9,593 $10,871 +$1,278 (+13%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? No 54¢ 54¢ $2,682 $2,675 −$7 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? No 30¢ 20¢ $3,279 $2,255 −$1,024 (-31%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? No 59¢ 36¢ $1,828 $1,121 −$706 (-39%)
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Over 33¢ 30¢ $330 $305 −$25 (-8%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 57¢ 12¢ $1,140 $250 −$890 (-78%)
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 Over 59¢ 62¢ $162 $168 +$7 (+4%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $200 $150 −$50 (-25%)
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 52¢ $1,021 $128 −$893 (-87%)
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $200 $50 −$150 (-75%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $200 $50 −$150 (-75%)
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 22¢ $47 $18 −$29 (-61%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $19 $14 −$5 (-25%)
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Egypt 15¢ 16¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $9,435 −$9,435 -100%
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) Jun 25 $98 −$98 -100%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 25 $530 −$530 -100%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $960 +$280 +29%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $3,000 +$314 +10%
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $11 −$11 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $36 −$35 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $440 +$560 +127%
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 2 Senegal? Jun 22 $40 −$40 -100%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Iraq? Jun 22 $35 −$35 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 Senegal? Jun 22 $33 −$20 -61%
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 3 Senegal? Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $460 +$539 +117%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $400 +$600 +150%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $17 −$17 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Exact Score: Tunisia 2 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $22 −$22 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $370 −$370 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 0 Japan? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $400 −$400 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $890 −$360 -40%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Haiti? Jun 19 $60 −$60 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Haiti? Jun 19 $37 −$37 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Haiti? Jun 19 $60 −$60 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? Jun 19 $120 −$120 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Haiti? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 2 Haiti? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $809 −$793 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $130 +$870 +669%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $110 −$110 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $1,320 −$1,320 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 2 South Africa? Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 1 Colombia? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $254 +$246 +97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $188 +$212 +113%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,200 +$800 +67%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $4,921 −$149 -3%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $990 −$480 -48%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $116 +$284 +244%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $120 −$120 -100%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $200 +$100 +50%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $300 −$203 -68%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $300 −$166 -55%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $430 −$430 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Apr 12 $35 −$35 -100%
Opinion FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? Apr 12 $140 −$140 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? Apr 12 $2,280 −$274 -12%
Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 12 $670 −$670 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 0m
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 12m
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 12m
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $6 13m
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 13m
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 14m
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 14m
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 17m
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 18m
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $7 20m
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $4 21m
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $20 22m
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $19 23m
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $40 23m
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 23m
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 25m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 80¢ $3 30m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 80¢ $40 31m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 80¢ $194 31m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 80¢ $1,166 31m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 80¢ $20 31m
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 31m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 80¢ $40 31m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 80¢ $14 31m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 80¢ $20 32m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 80¢ $40 33m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 80¢ $160 33m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 80¢ $8 33m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 80¢ $600 33m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 80¢ $4 33m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57,683.37 · official $57,683.37 (match) · 1969 history records