Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:21:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1bbe…1559 other 484 markets active 1h ago coverage 314d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$5,606 (-8%) realized −$3,499 · open −$2,107
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate33%150W / 306L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$145per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$61est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$3,764now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$118
7 days−$506
14 days+$273
30 days+$755
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% +$622
other 22% −$1,514
politics 10% −$1,729
sports 10% −$1,951
crypto 4% +$418
finance 3% −$1,328
economics 1% −$394
tech 0% −$54
culture 0% +$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -14.8% -22.9% 14% 14% -27.8%
≤30d 49 -27.5% -34.4% 24% 22% -4.0%
≤90d 176 -44.8% -50.0% 23% 20% -20.7%
all 456 -7.2% -16.0% 33% 29% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 29% -15.2%
10% -24.1% 28% -23.3%
15% -31.4% 24% -30.8%
20% -38.1% 20% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +16% → late -30% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$106 vs −$64 · ×1.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

314d coverage
Net worth$3,764
Realized−$3,499
Unrealized−$2,107
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses150 / 306
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$61
Open positions28
Markets (closed)456 / 484
History coverage314d
Avg bet$145
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 28 History 456 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 62¢ 44¢ $3,110 $2,175 −$935 (-30%)
Will Kamala Harris announce a Presidential run before 2027? Yes 20¢ 22¢ $345 $387 +$42 (+12%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 25¢ 10¢ $885 $369 −$515 (-58%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Yes 27¢ 34¢ $100 $128 +$28 (+28%)
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? No 18¢ 22¢ $100 $123 +$23 (+23%)
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together before 2027? Yes 19¢ 11¢ $110 $65 −$45 (-41%)
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Yes 16¢ 6¢ $150 $60 −$90 (-60%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 51¢ 40¢ $76 $59 −$17 (-23%)
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes 60¢ 56¢ $58 $54 −$4 (-7%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 39¢ 30¢ $59 $46 −$13 (-22%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $30 $34 +$4 (+12%)
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $37 $30 −$7 (-19%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? Yes 56¢ 58¢ $29 $30 +$1 (+4%)
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $30 $24 −$6 (-20%)
US bank failure by June 30? Yes 12¢ 8¢ $33 $20 −$13 (-39%)
Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026? Yes 43¢ 34¢ $25 $20 −$5 (-21%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $20 $17 −$2 (-12%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $18 $14 −$4 (-23%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $20 $12 −$8 (-38%)
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $14 $8 −$6 (-46%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-30%)
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-11%)
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? Yes 11¢ 1¢ $45 $4 −$41 (-91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $19 −$19 -98%
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Jun 16 $765 −$77 -10%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $114 −$23 -20%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $34 −$34 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $205 −$200 -98%
AI bubble burst in 2026? Jun 13 $420 −$60 -14%
Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau engaged by end of 2026? Jun 12 $61 −$8 -12%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Jun 12 $100 −$92 -92%
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? Jun 12 $122 −$91 -75%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Jun 12 $100 −$90 -90%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? Jun 12 $100 −$92 -92%
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Jun 12 $201 −$23 -12%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $18 +$74 +416%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $245 +$228 +93%
Will Kamala Harris announce a 2028 run for President by June 30? Jun 10 $47 −$33 -71%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 08 $100 −$82 -82%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Jun 08 $102 −$74 -72%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Jun 08 $162 −$26 -16%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 08 $390 −$53 -14%
Will the US strike 9 countries in 2026? Jun 07 $10 −$1 -11%
Will Declan Rice win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 07 $21 −$17 -84%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 06 $3,572 +$1,425 +40%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $127 −$125 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 05 $27 −$25 -94%
Graham Platner drops out before Maine Senate Dem primary? Jun 05 $91 −$89 -97%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 04 $72 −$48 -66%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $74 −$73 -98%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 03 $670 −$113 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 01 $91 −$86 -94%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 01 $300 +$72 +24%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $693 +$184 +26%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 29 $282 −$278 -98%
Canada recession before 2027? May 29 $220 +$92 +42%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 2 Arsenal FC? May 29 $31 −$31 -100%
FDA approves Retatrutide this year? May 29 $113 −$40 -36%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 29 $39 −$8 -19%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? May 28 $112 −$110 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET May 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET May 28 $42 −$42 -100%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5) May 28 $114 −$114 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $96 +$86 +90%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? May 24 $120 +$157 +131%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? May 24 $355 +$504 +142%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $104 −$10 -10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23? May 24 $200 +$56 +28%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $130 +$96 +74%
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? May 22 $1,324 +$81 +6%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 20 $22 −$10 -44%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? May 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 6¢ $25 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 45¢ $25 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $19 20h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 43¢ $121 28h
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? SELL Yes 34¢ $94 28h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $46 28h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 54¢ $34 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 44¢ $30 3d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 3d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $31 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 21¢ $102 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 44¢ $310 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 17¢ $100 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 49¢ $166 4d
AI bubble burst in 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $266 4d
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $49 4d
US bank failure by June 30? SELL Yes 56¢ $49 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $20 5d
US bank failure by June 30? SELL Yes 68¢ $20 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $316 5d
AI bubble burst in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $94 5d
Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau engaged by end of 2026? SELL Yes 31¢ $54 5d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? SELL Yes 1¢ $8 5d
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? SELL Yes 5¢ $13 5d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? SELL Yes 2¢ $10 5d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? SELL Yes 1¢ $8 5d
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $35 5d
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes 72¢ $92 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 58¢ $290 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,763.51 · official $3,762.83 (match) · 1851 history records