Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:44:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
1B 0x1bbe…cb31 crypto 385 markets active 1h ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$173 (-7%) realized −$172 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate47%164W / 187L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days+$5
14 days+$33
30 days−$96
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% −$126
crypto 32% −$61
other 3% $0
weather 1% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 +31.7% +19.2% 47% 36% -8.8%
≤30d 129 +0.2% -9.3% 43% 31% -15.7%
≤90d 351 -5.5% -14.5% 47% 39% -16.8%
all 351 -5.5% -14.5% 47% 39% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 39% -16.8%
10% -22.7% 31% -24.8%
15% -30.1% 25% -32.0%
20% -37.0% 19% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$172
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses164 / 187
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions34
Markets (closed)351 / 385
History coverage62d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 34 History 351 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $11 +$1 (+12%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-27%)
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes $3 $3 +$0 (+8%)
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+19%)
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 22¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 24¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 30¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 26¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 56 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $32 +$11 +33%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 17 $6 +$3 +42%
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff Jun 17 $53 −$50 -94%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova Jun 17 $38 +$1 +2%
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro Jun 17 $8 +$2 +32%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 17 $5 $0 -7%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 17 $4 +$4 +78%
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 17 $56 −$1 -2%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $8 +$1 +16%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 17 $2 $0 -11%
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry Jun 16 $2 $0 +10%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 16 $2 −$1 -78%
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 16 $3 +$3 +89%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva Jun 16 $1 −$1 -65%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 16 $3 +$3 +106%
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 16 $52 +$4 +7%
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Jun 16 $3 −$3 -90%
Grass Court Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Karolina Muchova Jun 16 $32 −$1 -4%
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik Jun 16 $1 +$1 +79%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +291%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +250%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$4 +344%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$13 +1270%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $62 −$2 -3%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $3 −$1 -22%
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken Jun 15 $2 +$1 +62%
Grass Court Championships: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Anastasia Potapova Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $50 +$4 +7%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -75%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +250%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $2 +$3 +126%
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$3 +276%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$6 +596%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Donna Vekic Jun 13 $86 +$5 +6%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 13 $90 +$4 +4%
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $2 +$2 +83%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter Jun 12 $3 −$1 -33%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $2 $0 -18%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 12 $7 +$3 +38%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Jun 12 $85 −$1 -2%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 12 $0 $0 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 49m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 83¢ $30 49m
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery SELL Adrian Mannarino 30¢ $4 4h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Adrian Mannarino 21¢ $3 5h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery SELL Adrian Mannarino 41¢ $4 5h
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff BUY Coco Gauff 96¢ $50 5h
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff SELL Paula Badosa $1 5h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Adrian Mannarino 28¢ $3 5h
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff BUY Paula Badosa 15¢ $3 6h
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro SELL Yulia Starodubtseva 18¢ $2 6h
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro BUY Yulia Starodubtseva 12¢ $1 6h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Denis Shapovalov BUY Denis Shapovalov $2 6h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Denis Shapovalov SELL Denis Shapovalov 20¢ $4 6h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro SELL Sho Shimabukuro 20¢ $2 6h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Sho Shimabukuro 14¢ $1 6h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro SELL Sho Shimabukuro 31¢ $6 7h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Denis Shapovalov BUY Denis Shapovalov 14¢ $3 7h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala SELL Alexandra Eala 100¢ $54 7h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Jessica Pegula 89¢ $35 7h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Sho Shimabukuro 15¢ $3 7h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Katerina Siniakova 21¢ $2 7h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Katerina Siniakova 21¢ $1 7h
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro SELL Yulia Starodubtseva 25¢ $4 8h
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro BUY Yulia Starodubtseva 22¢ $3 8h
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro SELL Yulia Starodubtseva 33¢ $4 8h
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro BUY Yulia Starodubtseva 22¢ $3 8h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz SELL Zizou Bergs 31¢ $6 8h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 92¢ $50 8h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Zizou Bergs 29¢ $3 9h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Zizou Bergs 24¢ $1 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.14 · official $49.12 (match) · 840 history records