Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T20:28:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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1B 0x1bbe…f8b0 weather 368 markets active 0h ago coverage 28d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 28d only
✗ bot/MM pace (122 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1,006 (-6%) realized −$1,006 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate68%249W / 117L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day121.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$98now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$76
7 days−$85
14 days−$84
30 days−$444
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 83% +$183
other 5% +$52
crypto 4% −$665
world 4% −$6
economics 2% −$22
politics 1% −$9
finance 0% +$20
sports 0% +$4
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (122 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -7.7% -16.5% 19% 3% -14.1%
≤30d 366 -0.3% -9.8% 68% 10% -11.8%
≤90d 366 -0.3% -9.8% 68% 10% -11.8%
all 366 -0.3% -9.8% 68% 10% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover121.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.8% 10% -11.8%
10% ← realistic here -18.4% 5% -20.2%
15% -26.3% 3% -27.9%
20% -33.5% 1% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$9 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$98
Realized−$1,006
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses249 / 117
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)366 / 368
History coverage28d ⚠
Avg bet$49
Trades / day121.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 366 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: the bug vs GamerLegion - Game 1 Winner the bug 7¢ 8¢ $50 $53 +$4 (+7%)
Will The MongolZ make a roster change before July? No 87¢ 81¢ $48 $44 −$4 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 26? Jun 25 $19 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 26? Jun 25 $1 $0 -14%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? Jun 25 $11 +$1 +7%
GPT-5.6 released by July 13, 2026? Jun 25 $6 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 26? Jun 25 $4 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 26? Jun 25 $1 $0 -7%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? Jun 25 $55 −$5 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 26? Jun 25 $1 $0 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 26? Jun 25 $74 −$15 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on June 27? Jun 25 $15 −$4 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 26? Jun 25 $34 −$12 -36%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 26? Jun 25 $11 −$1 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 26? Jun 25 $15 −$2 -15%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 25 $124 +$2 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 25 $127 +$16 +13%
Will Michael Bennet win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary Jun 25 $103 −$1 -1%
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 25 $139 −$6 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 24 $121 −$4 -4%
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? Jun 24 $137 −$17 -12%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 24 $140 −$3 -2%
Fed rate hike in 2026? Jun 24 $140 −$6 -4%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 24 $163 −$18 -11%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $132 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 24? Jun 23 $5 $0 -3%
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Jun 22 $18 −$1 -5%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $52 $0 -0%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 22 $34 −$7 -22%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $0 $0 -18%
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? Jun 21 $0 $0 -14%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 21 $0 $0 -13%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 21 $8 $0 -3%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $4 $0 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $91 +$2 +2%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $3 +$2 +45%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $10 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $25 $0 -1%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $10 −$3 -27%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 $0 -1%
Will Luis Javier Suárez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 11 $5 $0 -0%
Will Luis Diaz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $5 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 11 $9 $0 -1%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $5 $0 -0%
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $4 $0 -2%
Will Cody Gakpo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $5 $0 -0%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 11 $5 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $5 $0 -0%
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $5 $0 -1%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 26? SELL Yes 38¢ $19 7m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 26? BUY Yes 37¢ $19 11m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 26? SELL Yes 32¢ $1 22m
Dota 2: the bug vs GamerLegion - Game 1 Winner BUY the bug 7¢ $50 39m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 26? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 41m
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? SELL Yes 25¢ $12 42m
GPT-5.6 released by July 13, 2026? SELL Yes 68¢ $6 47m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 26? BUY Yes 36¢ $0 48m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 26? SELL Yes 26¢ $4 53m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 26? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 58m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 26? BUY Yes 25¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 26? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $49 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $55 1h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? BUY Yes 22¢ $11 1h
GPT-5.6 released by July 13, 2026? BUY Yes 65¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 26? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 26? SELL Yes 40¢ $60 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 26? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on June 27? SELL Yes 24¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 26? BUY Yes 48¢ $74 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 26? SELL Yes 17¢ $22 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 26? BUY Yes 25¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 26? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 26? BUY Yes 25¢ $25 2h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on June 27? BUY Yes 31¢ $15 2h
Will The MongolZ make a roster change before July? BUY No 87¢ $48 2h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 26? SELL Yes 25¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 26? BUY Yes 26¢ $11 3h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 26? SELL Yes 16¢ $12 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $97.55 · official $97.55 (match) · 3500 history records