Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:15:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
1B 0x1bbc…a861 other 125 markets active 1h ago coverage 509d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edgeP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$6,405 (-5%) realized −$6,433 · open +$28
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate34%40W / 77L
Whale WR37%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,030per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$445est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$9,729now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 509d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 28% +$2,525
sports 22% −$5,767
world 22% −$13,548
crypto 18% +$6,240
economics 4% −$4,819
tech 3% +$2,084
politics 3% +$706
finance 1% −$152
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +135.1% +112.7% 33% 33% -17.7%
≤30d 12 +135.1% +112.7% 33% 33% -17.7%
≤90d 13 +119.0% +98.1% 31% 31% -30.5%
all 117 -7.2% -16.1% 34% 32% -20.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 32% -20.8%
10% -24.1% 27% -28.4%
15% -31.4% 25% -35.3%
20% -38.2% 20% -41.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 37% (≥$1,200) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -47% → late +32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$905 vs −$636 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

509d coverage
Net worth$9,729
Realized−$6,433
Unrealized+$28
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses40 / 77
Whale WR (big bets)37%
Est. fees paid−$445
Open positions8
Markets (closed)117 / 125
History coverage509d
Avg bet$1,030
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 117 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 49¢ 48¢ $3,000 $2,985 −$14 (-0%)
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Portugal 28¢ 28¢ $1,500 $1,526 +$26 (+2%)
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Germany 20¢ 20¢ $1,500 $1,460 −$40 (-3%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $1,000 $981 −$19 (-2%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $1,000 $980 −$20 (-2%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $1,000 $975 −$25 (-2%)
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? No 51¢ 50¢ $500 $485 −$15 (-3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 18¢ $200 $335 +$135 (+68%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $2,765 −$357 -13%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,818 +$866 +48%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $2,251 −$132 -6%
Spread: Norway (-3.5) Jun 16 $1,247 −$1,217 -98%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1,200 −$139 -12%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $867 +$1,551 +179%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 13 $1,412 −$1,400 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $2,041 −$2,000 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2,032 +$2,311 +114%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 12 $358 −$350 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $2,031 −$2,000 -98%
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO Jun 12 $3,519 +$2,730 +78%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Apr 07 $5,000 −$3,730 -75%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? Mar 16 $3,770 −$2,749 -73%
US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31? Mar 07 $2,800 −$2,800 -100%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $STAR? Mar 03 $400 −$246 -61%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 03 $3,700 −$3,700 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $500 +$985 +197%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 28 $1,500 +$1,062 +71%
Will the Gatorade shower at Super Bowl LX be green/yellow? Feb 09 $500 +$1,425 +285%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 08 $250 −$250 -100%
Will the Gatorade shower at Super Bowl LX be orange? Feb 05 $400 −$400 -100%
Will the Gatorade shower at Super Bowl LX be blue? Feb 05 $250 −$250 -100%
Will the Gatorade shower at Super Bowl LX be purple? Feb 05 $500 −$500 -100%
Will LeBron James attend Super Bowl LX? Feb 05 $250 −$250 -100%
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverev Jan 30 $7,000 +$1,235 +18%
Will the Seahawks win the 2026 NFC Championship? Jan 28 $580 +$420 +72%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-25? Jan 25 $3,704 −$3,704 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 22? Jan 23 $4,000 +$2,181 +54%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 23? Jan 23 $350 −$62 -18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 21? Jan 21 $1,385 −$500 -36%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 21? Jan 21 $212 +$3 +1%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-20? Jan 20 $4,440 +$7,548 +170%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 20? Jan 20 $500 +$1,380 +276%
US strike on Mexico by December 31? Jan 20 $5,000 −$105 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 16? Jan 17 $1,000 +$408 +41%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 15? Jan 16 $860 +$208 +24%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jan 16 $2,500 +$528 +21%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 16? Jan 15 $400 −$400 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on January 15? Jan 14 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jan 14 $1,000 −$349 -35%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 14? Jan 14 $400 +$893 +223%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 14? Jan 14 $1,000 +$292 +29%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 13? Jan 13 $1,100 −$257 -23%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jan 13 $400 +$28 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 6? Jan 08 $500 +$542 +108%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 7? Jan 08 $1,000 +$695 +70%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX? Jan 06 $400 −$400 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 5? Jan 05 $1,600 +$1,774 +111%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 5? Jan 05 $750 −$445 -59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1,022 1h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 28¢ $1,532 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 49¢ $3,046 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $1,022 1h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 20¢ $1,536 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $1,024 1h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Algeria 13¢ $308 1h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) SELL Algeria 12¢ $334 1h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Algeria 14¢ $410 1h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) SELL Argentina 87¢ $8,013 1h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 22¢ $1,892 7h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 22¢ $155 7h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,684 7h
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL France 22¢ $2,120 7h
Spread: Norway (-3.5) BUY Norway 19¢ $1,247 13h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $1,061 13h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 22¢ $2,251 13h
Spread: Germany (-4.5) SELL Germany 99¢ $2,400 2d
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Spain 71¢ $1,412 3d
Spread: Germany (-4.5) BUY Germany 35¢ $867 4d
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Switzerland 32¢ $2,041 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $4,343 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1,818 4d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $358 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $2,031 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $2,032 4d
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO SELL Yes 99¢ $6,249 4d
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO BUY Yes 57¢ $1,270 70d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $1,270 70d
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO BUY Yes 52¢ $49 70d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,728.84 · official $9,728.79 (match) · 450 history records