Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:17:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1bbb…d8d7 other 67 markets active 6d ago coverage 749d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2 (-1%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate48%31W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 33% −$1
other 33% +$18
crypto 18% $0
politics 6% −$3
tech 3% −$9
finance 3% −$2
economics 3% −$2
sports 2% −$2
weather 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-20.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +20.8% +9.3% 80% 40% +9.2%
≤30d 9 +21.4% +9.9% 89% 56% +9.9%
≤90d 19 -7.3% -16.1% 63% 37% -16.1%
all 65 -11.9% -20.3% 48% 32% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.3% 32% -9.8%
10% -27.9% 22% -18.5%
15% -34.9% 17% -26.3%
20% -41.3% 14% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -26% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

749d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses31 / 34
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)65 / 67
History coverage749d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Accenture (ACN) beat quarterly earnings? Yes 87¢ 90¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Trump attend 1 World Cup match? Yes 78¢ 62¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $1 +$1 +58%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +44%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 11 $1 $0 +3%
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $1 $0 +3%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 11 $1 $0 -5%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 31, 2026? May 28 $1 $0 +2%
Will JD Vance say "Trump" 3+ times in Des Moines? May 28 $1 $0 +13%
Will Aubry Bracco win Survivor Season 50? May 28 $1 $0 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 75°F or below on May 6? May 28 $1 +$1 +56%
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 60% and May 04 $1 $0 +18%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? May 04 $1 $0 +22%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid Apr 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by December 13? Apr 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Apr 02 $1 $0 +9%
Will Micron Technology (MU) beat quarterly earnings? Apr 02 $1 $0 +2%
Will US or Israel strike Iran first? Apr 02 $1 $0 +0%
Gemini 3.5 released by June 30? Apr 02 $1 −$1 -64%
Will Wolves finish in last place in the 2025-26 English Premier League Apr 02 $1 $0 -19%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Apr 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mark Byington win the Men's 2026 Naismith Coach of the Year award Mar 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? Mar 05 $1 $0 +35%
Will Cboe Global Markets (CBOE) beat quarterly earnings? Feb 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 10? Feb 05 $1 $0 +6%
Will Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) beat quarterly earnings? Feb 05 $1 $0 +8%
Will JPMorgan Chase (JPM) beat quarterly earnings? Jan 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Jazz vs. Knicks Jan 10 $2 $0 +12%
Hornets vs. Raptors Dec 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will José Antonio Kast come in fourth in the 1st round of the 2025 Chi Dec 05 $1 $0 +1%
Will AECOM (ACM) beat quarterly earnings? Dec 05 $1 $0 +11%
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o Nov 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Home Depot (HD) beat quarterly earnings? Nov 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Lamb Weston Holdings (LW) beat quarterly earnings? Nov 15 $1 $0 +45%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 43.5% and 43.9% on October 3? Nov 15 $1 +$2 +178%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 31? Nov 15 $1 +$2 +245%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from September 23 to September 30, Sep 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk buy TikTok before April? Sep 28 $1 $0 +14%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Sep 28 $54 −$2 -3%
Will Meta have the top AI model on March 31? Mar 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin above $83,000 on March 21? Mar 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 14-21? Mar 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Knicks Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Elon" or "Musk" during victory rally? Mar 18 $1 $0 +30%
Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during victory rally? Mar 18 $3 +$9 +300%
Will Romuald Starosielec be the next President of Poland? Jan 17 $5 −$1 -25%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2025 meeting? Jan 17 $6 −$1 -25%
Will the Liberal–National Coalition win the most seats in the next Aus Jan 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will $Fartcoin hit $1b FDV in 2024? Jan 17 $39 +$23 +60%
Solana above $225 on December 20? Dec 16 $47 −$8 -17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Accenture (ACN) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 87¢ $1 6d
Will Trump attend 1 World Cup match? BUY Yes 78¢ $1 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 6d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 91¢ $1 6d
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $1 6d
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL Yes 60¢ $1 6d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 87¢ $1 19d
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $1 19d
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 19d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 75°F or below on May 6? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 43d
Will JD Vance say "Trump" 3+ times in Des Moines? BUY Yes 88¢ $1 43d
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $1 43d
Will Aubry Bracco win Survivor Season 50? BUY Yes 85¢ $1 76d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 76d
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid BUY Yes 86¢ $1 76d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $1 76d
Gemini 3.5 released by June 30? SELL Yes 31¢ $0 76d
Will Wolves finish in last place in the 2025-26 English Premier League SELL Yes 52¢ $1 76d
Will Micron Technology (MU) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 98¢ $1 93d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee BUY No $1 93d
Will Wolves finish in last place in the 2025-26 English Premier League BUY Yes 63¢ $1 93d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March BUY Yes $1 104d
Will US or Israel strike Iran first? BUY US 50¢ $1 104d
Will Mark Byington win the Men's 2026 Naismith Coach of the Year award BUY Yes 84¢ $1 104d
Will Cboe Global Markets (CBOE) beat quarterly earnings? BUY No 11¢ $1 131d
Gemini 3.5 released by June 30? BUY Yes 86¢ $1 131d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? BUY Yes 74¢ $1 131d
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 158d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $1 158d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.85 · official $4.85 (match) · 127 history records