Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T19:48:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
1B 0x1bb4…224c crypto 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 349d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$7 (+2%) realized +$38 · open −$31
Gross ROI / mkt +78% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +61% what you keep after slip
Net edge+61%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate60%6W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$29
14 days+$29
30 days+$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$30
crypto 25% −$22
politics 15% +$5
sports 7% +$24
world 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+61.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +41.1% +27.6% 67% 50% +11.2%
≤30d 6 +41.1% +27.6% 67% 50% +11.2%
≤90d 6 +41.1% +27.6% 67% 50% +11.2%
all 10 +78.3% +61.4% 60% 50% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +61.4% 50% -6.6%
10% +45.9% 50% -15.5%
15% +31.8% 40% -23.7%
20% +18.9% 40% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 62% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% too few recent
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +78% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$23 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

349d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$38
Unrealized−$31
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses6 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage349d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 5-10%? Yes 41¢ $31 $0 −$31 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals Jun 22 $112 −$30 -27%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 22 $15 +$36 +232%
Christian Pulisic: 1+ assists Jun 19 $47 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $10 −$1 -14%
Harry Kane: 3+ goals Jun 17 $1 $0 +26%
Rainbow Six Siege: Virtus.pro vs Twisted Minds (BO1) - Europe MENA Lea Jun 16 $24 +$24 +102%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $118K on July 17 at 5PM ET? Jul 17 $42 −$42 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $160 and $170 on July 16? Jul 17 $16 +$27 +170%
Will the price of Solana be between $150 and $160 on July 11? Jul 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Solana be greater than $160 on July 11? Jul 13 $2 +$13 +567%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.04 · official $0.04 (match) · 24 history records