Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:54:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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1B 0x1bb1…eac3 crypto 263 markets active 1h ago coverage 100d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 99d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,688 (+17%) realized +$3,586 · open +$102
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate43%112W / 147L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day31.4pace
Fees−$318est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$449now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 100d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% +$295
crypto 40% +$1,562
other 2% −$202
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+1.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 +44.9% +31.1% 39% 39% +5.4%
≤30d 93 +25.4% +13.5% 35% 35% -10.2%
≤90d 93 +25.4% +13.5% 35% 35% -10.2%
all 259 +12.1% +1.4% 43% 31% -3.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.4% 31% -3.0%
10% ← realistic here -8.3% 25% -12.3%
15% -17.1% 20% -20.8%
20% -25.3% 17% -28.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
11.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$91 vs −$59 · ×1.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$449
Realized+$3,586
Unrealized+$102
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses112 / 147
Est. fees paid−$318
Open positions4
Markets (closed)259 / 263
History coverage100d ⚠
Avg bet$84
Trades / day31.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 259 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 5¢ 9¢ $105 $194 +$89 (+85%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Over 23¢ 24¢ $153 $157 +$3 (+2%)
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $88 $98 +$10 (+11%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 5.5 Over 4¢ 4¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 52 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $168 +$432 +257%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $96 +$571 +595%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $102 −$102 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $133 +$147 +111%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $70 −$54 -77%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $72 −$41 -57%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $135 −$53 -39%
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 18 $106 −$106 -100%
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 18 $139 −$137 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne Jun 18 $230 +$269 +117%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne Jun 18 $268 −$268 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne Jun 18 $180 −$180 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 1 Winne Jun 18 $269 +$211 +78%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $232 −$232 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 18 $232 +$168 +72%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 18 $174 −$174 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $185 −$185 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $168 −$168 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $126 −$126 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $150 +$450 +300%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $2 +$16 +858%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $88 +$524 +595%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $180 −$180 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $203 +$497 +245%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $60 −$60 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $93 −$93 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $180 −$180 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $345 +$1,011 +293%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $58 −$58 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $90 +$200 +222%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $124 +$276 +222%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $167 +$134 +80%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $80 −$80 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $70 −$70 -100%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $140 −$109 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $51 +$17 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $36 −$35 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$9 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +15%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $61 −$61 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$15 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -96%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $75 +$79 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$31 +119%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $3 +$2 +67%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu Jun 16 $22 −$22 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $128 −$128 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 23¢ $153 48m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 4¢ $0 49m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 4¢ $0 49m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 84¢ $667 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 12¢ $9 3h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 12¢ $63 3h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 12¢ $24 3h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 5¢ $37 3h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 5¢ $38 3h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 5¢ $8 3h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 5¢ $0 3h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 5¢ $2 3h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 5¢ $8 3h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 5¢ $8 3h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 28¢ $168 3h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 56¢ $280 5h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 1¢ $2 5h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 1¢ $0 6h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 1¢ $12 6h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 1¢ $2 6h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 26¢ $133 6h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 4¢ $31 6h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 14¢ $82 6h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 4¢ $70 6h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 9¢ $72 6h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 22¢ $135 6h
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $51 7h
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 7h
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $14 7h
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $7 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $448.93 · official $448.93 (match) · 3500 history records