Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:21:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
1B 0x1bb0…aa75 world 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 268d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$35 (-1%) realized −$162 · open +$127
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate72%23W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$943now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 94% −$58
crypto 4% +$13
other 1% +$8
politics 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-23.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 3 -24.3% -31.5% 67% 33% -33.8%
all 32 -15.5% -23.5% 72% 41% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.5% 41% -16.7%
10% -30.9% 19% -24.7%
15% -37.5% 9% -32.0%
20% -43.7% 0% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% too few recent
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$36 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

268d coverage
Net worth$943
Realized−$162
Unrealized+$127
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses23 / 9
Open positions2
Markets (closed)32 / 34
History coverage268d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by June 30? No 77¢ 97¢ $427 $537 +$110 (+26%)
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by July 31? No 88¢ 92¢ $389 $406 +$17 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Apr 05 $100 +$12 +12%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 04 $487 +$12 +2%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31? Mar 30 $300 −$262 -87%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? Feb 02 $100 +$12 +12%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 02 $125 +$12 +10%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jan 29 $100 +$4 +4%
Israel strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? Jan 25 $20 +$1 +5%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by February 28? Jan 20 $499 +$45 +9%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by January 31? Jan 20 $69 +$23 +33%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? Jan 01 $13 +$1 +7%
Will Russia capture Rodynske by January 31? Jan 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31? Jan 01 $10 +$4 +43%
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by December 31? Jan 01 $46 +$15 +32%
Will Trump meet with Putin by December 31? Dec 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on December 15? Dec 20 $5 +$1 +13%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Dec 20 $6 +$1 +22%
Nothing Ever Happens: Russia Edition Dec 14 $6 $0 +5%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025? Dec 14 $4 $0 +11%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Dec 03 $10 $0 +3%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30? Dec 01 $24 +$11 +47%
Ukraine hits Moscow by December 31? Nov 23 $6 +$1 +22%
Ukraine Tomahawk missile strike by December 31? Nov 23 $4 $0 +7%
NATO x Russia military clash in 2025? Nov 23 $10 +$1 +12%
Current shutdown longest in U.S. history? Nov 20 $4 +$1 +41%
Nothing Ever Happens: Military Edition Oct 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Russia capture Siversk by October 31? Oct 21 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Trump meet with Putin by October 31? Oct 21 $10 +$3 +32%
Will Ukraine recapture territory in Kucheriv Yar by October 31? Oct 03 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by October 31? Sep 29 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Taylor Swift release a new original song by October 2? Sep 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 17? Sep 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by October 3? Sep 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by July 31? BUY No 92¢ $200 1h
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $189 22d
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $112 62d
US forces enter Iran by December 31? SELL Yes 100¢ $112 80d
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by June 30? BUY No 76¢ $315 80d
US forces enter Iran by December 31? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 80d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? SELL No 100¢ $415 80d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? BUY No 95¢ $396 85d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 85d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31? SELL Yes 27¢ $34 115d
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $100 146d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? SELL No 83¢ $84 146d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? SELL No 98¢ $104 146d
Israel strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $21 149d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? BUY No 90¢ $91 154d
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $25 154d
Israel strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $20 154d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? BUY No 95¢ $100 154d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? BUY No 89¢ $100 154d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31? BUY Yes 64¢ $100 154d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31? BUY Yes 62¢ $200 154d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by February 28? SELL No 49¢ $544 154d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by January 31? SELL No 90¢ $92 154d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by February 28? BUY No 56¢ $299 158d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by February 28? BUY No 34¢ $200 165d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by January 31? BUY No 63¢ $14 172d
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? SELL No 100¢ $14 173d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by January 31? BUY No 69¢ $55 174d
Will Russia capture Rodynske by January 31? BUY Yes 55¢ $20 174d
Will Trump meet with Putin by December 31? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 174d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $942.80 · official $942.80 (match) · 71 history records