Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T02:36:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1baf…b0c2 sports 182 markets active 2h ago coverage 174d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate10%18W / 164L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 33% −$2
politics 21% −$3
other 16% −$6
economics 10% −$1
culture 7% −$3
world 6% −$1
crypto 5% $0
tech 2% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.5% -10.0% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 3 -0.6% -10.1% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 5 -0.6% -10.0% 0% 0% -10.1%
all 182 -0.2% -9.7% 10% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

174d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses18 / 164
Open positions0
Markets (closed)182 / 182
History coverage174d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 182 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alexander Zverev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 29 $39 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 21 $102 −$1 -1%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $104 $0 -0%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 26 $45 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? May 18 $43 $0 -1%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 08 $43 $0 -0%
Will Ali Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 08 $37 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 08 $126 $0 -0%
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 08 $38 $0 -0%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 07 $39 −$2 -5%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 07 $54 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 07 $88 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 07 $39 −$1 -1%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Mar 06 $39 $0 +0%
Will Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 06 $44 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Mar 05 $144 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 05 $276 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 05 $42 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 04 $49 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Mar 04 $169 $0 -0%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 03 $40 $0 -1%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Mar 03 $47 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 02 $87 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Mar 02 $68 $0 -0%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 02 $161 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 02 $161 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 02 $58 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 01 $154 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 01 $46 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 01 $160 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Mar 01 $258 +$1 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 01 $150 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 01 $51 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 01 $108 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 28 $155 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Feb 28 $209 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 26 $103 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Feb 26 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 26 $96 $0 -0%
Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 26 $95 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 26 $212 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 2, 2026 (ET)? Feb 22 $51 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 22 $267 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 22 $66 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 22 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 22 $98 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 22 $139 $0 -0%
Will the Florida Panthers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 22 $107 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? Feb 22 $108 $0 +0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 22 $61 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Alexander Zverev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 93¢ $39 1h
Will Alexander Zverev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 93¢ $39 8h
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 92¢ $43 7d
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 94¢ $44 7d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $48 21d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $48 21d
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $45 33d
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $45 33d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? SELL No 93¢ $42 41d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? BUY No 93¢ $43 41d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $36 112d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $36 112d
Will Ali Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? SELL No 97¢ $37 112d
Will Ali Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? BUY No 98¢ $37 112d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $39 112d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $39 112d
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 97¢ $38 112d
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 98¢ $26 113d
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 98¢ $13 113d
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $37 113d
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $0 113d
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $27 113d
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $12 113d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 90¢ $45 113d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 90¢ $45 113d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 97¢ $46 113d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 97¢ $46 114d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 90¢ $38 114d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 91¢ $39 114d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 97¢ $42 114d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 725 history records