Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:36:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1baf…eb67 other 61 markets active 1h ago coverage 460d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$26 (+2%) realized +$26 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate52%31W / 29L
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% −$13
other 29% +$42
crypto 9% −$1
politics 7% −$6
sports 4% +$3
culture 4% +$1
tech 3% $0
economics 2% $0
weather 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)+4.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 12 -4.3% -13.4% 33% 8% -12.3%
≤90d 12 -4.3% -13.4% 33% 8% -12.3%
all 60 +15.4% +4.4% 52% 8% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.4% 8% -7.5%
10% -5.6% 3% -16.3%
15% -14.7% 2% -24.4%
20% -23.1% 2% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +33% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.7 per $1 lost it wins $1.7
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

460d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized+$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses31 / 29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)60 / 61
History coverage460d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 94¢ 94¢ $32 $32 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $31 +$1 +2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $36 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $69 +$8 +11%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 25 $33 −$4 -13%
Will Alberta join the US? May 24 $49 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $35 −$16 -46%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $42 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 22 $42 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 21 $5 $0 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 20 $51 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 20 $49 −$2 -4%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 19 $26 $0 +0%
Starmer out before July? Dec 13 $9 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jun 27 $5 $0 +2%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Jun 27 $8 $0 -2%
Will India invade Pakistan before July? Jun 20 $30 +$1 +3%
Will Nikita Kucherov win the Hart Trophy? Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year? Jun 07 $5 $0 +2%
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 05 $36 −$6 -17%
Will 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' have the best domestic opening weekend in Jun 04 $4 $0 -0%
Will Jack Draper win the 2025 French Open? Jun 02 $1 $0 -9%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 01 $3 −$1 -52%
Will Elon tweet 125–149 times May 23–30? May 31 $12 $0 +3%
Will Sam Altman buy TikTok? May 30 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 30 $8 $0 +3%
Will Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people? May 30 $12 $0 +0%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 30 $7 +$2 +32%
Will another driver finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? May 29 $36 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in May? May 28 $39 $0 -0%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? May 27 $42 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1700 in May? May 25 $5 $0 +1%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? May 24 $47 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before June? May 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Aston Villa finish in the top 4 of EPL? May 23 $5 $0 +1%
Will Nicușor Dan win by 6–12%? May 22 $4 +$44 +1120%
Will Sweden finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? May 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal minority? May 11 $12 −$1 -5%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? May 10 $16 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? May 10 $1 $0 -39%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? May 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? May 10 $12 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? May 08 $12 $0 -4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $93000 on May 9? May 08 $17 $0 +1%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 May 08 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? May 07 $16 $0 +0%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 07 $11 $0 +1%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2025 National League Championship? May 07 $6 $0 -0%
Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? May 07 $11 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $101000 and $103000 on May 9? May 06 $12 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $32 1h
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 86¢ $1 22d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 86¢ $31 22d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 84¢ $31 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $34 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $34 22d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 78¢ $27 22d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 78¢ $27 22d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 27¢ $29 24d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 31¢ $33 24d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $1 24d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $1 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $4 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $15 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $35 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 89¢ $48 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 74¢ $40 25d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $38 25d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $4 25d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $42 25d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 74¢ $42 27d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY No 74¢ $42 27d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $3 27d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $3 27d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $0 27d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes $2 28d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes $3 28d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $5 28d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 91¢ $47 28d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 91¢ $47 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.13 · official $32.08 (match) · 195 history records