Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:46:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1bae…053e crypto 801 markets active 3d ago coverage 77d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$571 (-2%) realized −$571 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate76%605W / 196L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day16.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$88
14 days−$291
30 days−$249
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$751
other 0% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -4.0% -13.2% 76% 59% -19.2%
≤30d 271 +0.6% -9.0% 79% 53% -12.3%
≤90d 801 -3.1% -12.3% 76% 54% -11.7%
all 801 -3.1% -12.3% 76% 54% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 54% -11.7%
10% -20.7% 36% -20.1%
15% -28.4% 19% -27.8%
20% -35.4% 9% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$34 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$571
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses605 / 196
Open positions0
Markets (closed)801 / 801
History coverage77d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day16.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 801 Trades
no open positions (161 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$3 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 13 $40 −$8 -19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$5 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 13 $60 +$8 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 12 $31 +$10 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 11 $30 +$5 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$3 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 11 $30 +$5 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $30 +$2 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $31 +$11 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 11 $40 +$4 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 11 $40 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 11 $61 +$14 +24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $40 +$4 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 11 $102 −$77 -75%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$2 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$2 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 11 $20 +$3 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 11 $32 +$8 +24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$2 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 11 $20 +$6 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$8 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 10 $20 +$11 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 10 $25 +$7 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 10 $51 +$10 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 10 $50 −$43 -86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 10 $20 +$10 +47%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 10 $25 +$8 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 10 $40 +$5 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 10 $61 +$2 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 10 $25 −$25 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 09 $21 +$20 +95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 09 $41 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 09 $62 +$4 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 09 $31 −$30 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 09 $40 +$4 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 09 $61 +$3 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 09 $61 −$60 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 09 $10 +$5 +47%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 09 $10 +$7 +72%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 09 $51 +$18 +35%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 09 $105 +$22 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $10 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $10 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $30 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $10 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $10 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET SELL Up 5¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $30 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $10 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $10 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $10 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $10 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $30 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $10 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $31 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $30 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $10 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $30 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $30 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $31 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $41 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $10 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $40 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $40 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $10 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $10 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $41 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $40 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 19¢ $25 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $51 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2566 history records