Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T06:51:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1bad…22a9 other 144 markets active 2h ago coverage 126d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$47 (-0%) realized −$47 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate7%10W / 132L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$228per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$18
politics 33% −$14
sports 8% −$17
tech 3% −$1
world 2% −$1
crypto 2% $0
economics 2% −$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 11 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 108 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
all 142 -1.6% -11.0% 7% 4% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 4% -9.7%
10% -19.5% 4% -18.3%
15% -27.3% 4% -26.2%
20% -34.4% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×7.17 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized−$47
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses10 / 132
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)142 / 144
History coverage126d
Avg bet$228
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 142 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will XRP reach $2.60 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 28 $21 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 27 $23 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 23 $19 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 19 $880 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $19 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $22 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $26 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 08 $212 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 08 $18 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 30 $35 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $215 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $165 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $157 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $459 −$1 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $192 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $169 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 23 $357 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $195 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $364 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $394 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $207 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $429 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $352 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $363 −$1 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $159 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $204 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 16 $171 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 15 $184 $0 -0%
Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 15 $150 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $202 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 12 $327 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 11 $204 $0 +0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $380 −$1 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 11 $165 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $188 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 09 $213 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $156 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $189 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $159 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $211 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $218 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 03 $155 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $521 −$1 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 02 $188 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $157 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $176 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $190 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 29 $331 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $191 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 27 $223 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $25 1h
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $21 1h
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $21 10h
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $23 10h
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $23 16h
Will XRP reach $2.60 in June? BUY No 100¢ $31 4d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $19 4d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $19 7d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $36 8d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $36 9d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $19 13d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $19 13d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $22 13d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $22 13d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $26 14d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $26 17d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $23 19d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $23 19d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $18 19d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $18 21d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $35 28d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $35 28d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $215 29d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $215 30d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $165 31d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $165 32d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $157 32d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $157 33d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $189 33d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $189 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.97 · official $55.97 (match) · 463 history records