Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:49:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
1B 0x1bab…bfd3 politics 124 markets active 1h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$107 (+1%) realized +$107 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate10%12W / 112L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$165per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$10
politics 42% −$13
crypto 4% −$1
tech 4% −$1
sports 3% +$127
economics 3% −$1
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)+3.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 13 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 110 +1.6% -8.0% 5% 5% -9.7%
all 124 +14.0% +3.1% 10% 10% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.1% 10% -9.1%
10% -6.8% 8% -17.8%
15% -15.8% 6% -25.7%
20% -24.0% 6% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +28% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$1 · ×19.29 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.09 per $1 lost it wins $2.09
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$107
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses12 / 112
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)124 / 124
History coverage116d
Avg bet$165
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 124 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $26 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $21 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $20 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $151 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 19 $25 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $28 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $27 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $30 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $150 $0 -0%
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 08 $14 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $15 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 30 $18 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $139 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $287 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $143 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $156 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 20 $453 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $157 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $301 −$1 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 18 $128 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $179 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 16 $174 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $169 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 13 $144 −$1 -1%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $152 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $146 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 12 $471 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $152 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 11 $124 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $181 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $165 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $145 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $179 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $178 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $141 $0 -0%
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $176 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $486 −$1 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 04 $136 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $373 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 03 $184 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $351 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $177 $0 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $149 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $296 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $159 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $142 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio Apr 29 $146 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $130 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $512 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 21 $150 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $26 1h
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $26 3h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $21 7h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $21 14h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $20 18h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $20 22h
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $19 22h
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $19 2d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $25 2d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 6d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $28 6d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $28 6d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $27 7d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $27 7d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $30 10d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $30 10d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $25 11d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $25 11d
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $14 13d
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $14 14d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $15 15d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $15 21d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $18 22d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $18 23d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $139 23d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $139 26d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $149 30d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $149 30d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $143 30d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $143 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 348 history records