Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:52:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
1B 0x1baa…43cc crypto 1021 markets active 7h ago coverage 141d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$105 (-1%) realized −$105 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate71%720W / 294L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day11.2pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$13
30 days−$76
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$147
sports 3% −$10
world 2% −$17
politics 0% −$4
other 0% −$1
tech 0% $0
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +13.8% +3.0% 59% 48% -11.2%
≤30d 110 -7.9% -16.7% 48% 28% -15.7%
≤90d 902 -3.9% -13.0% 74% 37% -9.9%
all 1014 -5.0% -14.1% 71% 37% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 37% -10.3%
10% -22.3% 24% -18.9%
15% -29.8% 16% -26.7%
20% -36.7% 9% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$105
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses720 / 294
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions7
Markets (closed)1014 / 1021
History coverage141d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day11.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 1014 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan South Africa 97¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BetBoom Team 45¢ 46¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 30¢ 30¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 75¢ 74¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 83¢ 76¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will South Korea be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+125%)
Will Ivory Coast be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-64%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 183 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 17 $1 $0 +5%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh Jun 17 $2 $0 +0%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka Jun 16 $1 $0 -23%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $1 $0 +36%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1 $0 +40%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +62%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1 $0 +48%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $1 $0 +10%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1 $0 +34%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $12 −$3 -25%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1 $0 -11%
Will Donald Trump attend the G7 Summit? Jun 14 $1 $0 -2%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1 $0 -4%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 14 $1 $0 -4%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $6 −$1 -14%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +73%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $1 $0 +14%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $1 +$2 +197%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $1 $0 +42%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $2 +$1 +28%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1 +$1 +119%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $4 −$1 -29%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $1 +$1 +50%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1 +$1 +57%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $1 +$1 +97%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $2 −$1 -62%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $10 −$1 -5%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 09 $1 $0 +8%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $1 $0 +42%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $9 −$2 -21%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $21 −$2 -10%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $4 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1 $0 -15%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $17 −$1 -4%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1 $0 -22%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $1 $0 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 07 $5 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 06 $1 $0 +4%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $1 +$1 +55%
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series Jun 06 $2 $0 +5%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $3 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 9z (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $1 −$1 -99%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $1 +$1 +62%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $1 +$1 +76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan BUY South Africa 97¢ $1 7h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh BUY Australia 100¢ $2 14h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 95¢ $1 15h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka SELL New Zealand 66¢ $1 33h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY New Zealand 84¢ $1 33h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 83¢ $1 38h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 30¢ $1 42h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 45¢ $1 42h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 75¢ $1 42h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 73¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 71¢ $1 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 51¢ $1 3d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 67¢ $1 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 45¢ $1 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 74¢ $1 3d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 61¢ $1 3d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 45¢ $6 3d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 43¢ $6 3d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 3d
Will Donald Trump attend the G7 Summit? SELL Yes 94¢ $1 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 3d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 32¢ $3 3d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 63¢ $5 3d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 58¢ $1 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Ilia Topuria 79¢ $1 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Spirit 62¢ $5 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 68¢ $5 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 67¢ $2 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY TheMongolz 56¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 89¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.52 · official $5.52 (match) · 2387 history records