Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T07:43:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
1B 0x1ba8…2cc1 weather 505 markets active 0h ago coverage 539d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,107 (+1%) realized +$1,082 · open +$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate97%488W / 14L
Whale WR95%big bets
Drawdown61%max
Avg bet$368per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$3,191now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$132
14 days−$179
30 days−$68
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 34% −$401
economics 18% +$437
politics 14% +$951
finance 14% +$388
world 8% +$227
other 4% +$40
crypto 3% −$630
sports 3% +$37
tech 1% +$25
culture 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +0.4% -9.1% 100% 0% -8.5%
≤30d 244 -0.3% -9.8% 99% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 432 -1.2% -10.6% 98% 0% -9.4%
all 502 -1.1% -10.6% 97% 1% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 1% -9.0%
10% -19.1% 0% -17.7%
15% -26.9% 0% -25.7%
20% -34.1% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 95% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$119 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.62 per $1 lost it wins $1.62
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

539d coverage
Net worth$3,191
Realized+$1,082
Unrealized+$25
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses488 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)502 / 505
History coverage539d
Avg bet$368
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 502 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Discord not IPO by June 30, 2026? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $2,464 $2,487 +$23 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 24? No 100¢ 100¢ $500 $501 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 24? No 100¢ 100¢ $202 $203 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 23? Jun 23 $488 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 23? Jun 23 $500 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 22? Jun 22 $500 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 22? Jun 22 $175 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 18? Jun 22 $118 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 20? Jun 22 $500 +$5 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 21? Jun 21 $543 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 21? Jun 21 $500 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 20? Jun 20 $213 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 20? Jun 20 $347 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 20? Jun 20 $467 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 19? Jun 20 $250 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 19? Jun 20 $500 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 19? Jun 20 $58 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 19? Jun 20 $500 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 19? Jun 19 $500 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $65 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 19? Jun 19 $36 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C or higher on June Jun 19 $112 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 18 $4,866 +$109 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $250 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $500 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 16? Jun 17 $165 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 16? Jun 17 $302 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $250 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $60 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 16 $290 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $158 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on June 15? Jun 15 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $231 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 15? Jun 15 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $500 −$500 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 14? Jun 15 $125 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 78°F or higher on June 14? Jun 15 $13 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 14? Jun 15 $500 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 14? Jun 15 $500 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? Jun 15 $322 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 14? Jun 15 $500 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $249 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 14? Jun 14 $250 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $250 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $500 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $500 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $216 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $84 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $478 +$2 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $487 26m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $5 27m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $8 28m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $187 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $500 22h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $488 25h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $500 41h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $175 2d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $500 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $43 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $33 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $20 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $332 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $40 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $59 3d
Will Discord not IPO by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $35 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $500 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $169 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $22 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $22 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $117 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $77 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $167 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $107 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $295 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $52 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,191.37 · official $3,191.37 (match) · 1742 history records