Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T20:35:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
1B 0x1ba8…6bce crypto 12 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$55 (+8%) realized +$55 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate75%9W / 3L
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day34.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$170
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-1.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +8.8% -1.6% 75% 42% +11.5%
≤30d 12 +8.8% -1.6% 75% 42% +11.5%
≤90d 12 +8.8% -1.6% 75% 42% +11.5%
all 12 +8.8% -1.6% 75% 42% +11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.6% 42% +11.5%
10% ← realistic here -11.0% 42% +0.8%
15% -19.6% 17% -8.9%
20% -27.5% 8% -17.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 80% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$6 · ×3.39 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×10.16 per $1 lost it wins $10.16
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$55
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses9 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day34.0
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 25 $154 +$116 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 25 $56 −$3 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 25 $102 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 25 $55 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 25 $82 +$33 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 25 $35 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 25 $81 +$20 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 25 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 25 $41 +$10 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 25 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$1 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $25 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $25 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $26 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $26 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $25 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $25 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $25 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $25 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $25 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 47 history records